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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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860 FXUS64 KCRP 122016 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 316 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts Tuesday. - Low to medium rain/thunderstorm chances east Tuesday. We still have the blocking high pattern that has been producing the hot, rain-free weather over the last couple of weeks. The pattern looks like it will shift a bit over the next couple of days, but through tomorrow night (Tuesday night), it looks like we will continue the hot pattern with increasing moisture over the next few days. High temperatures will range from around 90F near the shore, to around 105 in the western Brush Country and the Rio Grande Valley. Moisture will vary inversely with the highest near the shore to the lowest in the Rio Grande Valley, which when combined produces a large area of 110 Heat index values over the Coastal Bend and the Brush Country. The new heat risk impact shows moderate to major heat impacts tomorrow was well. With the increase in moisture for Tuesday, and a 500 mb tropical wave sneaking into northern Mexico, there is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms to push into the forecast area during Tuesday afternoon with the sea breeze, and possibly (low chance(15- 25%)) the rain pushing through the Brush Country through the evening. Otherwise, tonight and Tuesday night will be muggy with lows ranging from 75 to 85F each night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Key Messages: - An Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across the northern Brush Country to a moderate to major risk across the remainder of South Texas through the weekend. Not much change with the overall forecast through the week and into the weekend. Summer time conditions will continue with hot and humid days and muggy nights and generally rain free for most of South Texas. Mid/upper level high pressure across Texas will shift eastward Wednesday and Thursday as an inverted trough tracks around the southern periphery of the high. There is also a trough progged to move east across the plains. The inverted trough is progged to slide west to northwest across S and W TX and northeastern Mexico. The high pressure will still be an influence on the weather across S TX, but a deeper southeast flow will lead to slightly deeper moisture across the area. PWATs are forecast to be around 2 inches across the eastern half of S TX on Wednesday. The moisture combined with a moderately unstable airmass and low level convergence along the sea breeze, will be sufficient for convective development. The best chance will be across the Victoria Crossroads where the capping inversion is progged to be weakest. Although these conditions will be present on Wednesday, the chance of convection will be low to medium (20-35%) across the Victoria Crossroads and very low to low (5-14%) across the remainder of S TX due to the continued influence from the high pressure. Moisture will be more limited Thursday with PWATs generally 1.5-1.8 inches. Thus, rain chances will be lower with a 10-15% chance across the Victoria Crossroads. Similar conditions continue into Friday. No mention of precipitation over the weekend as the chances are very low (1-10%). Overall, through the latter half of this week and into the weekend, most locations across S TX will be rain free. Heat will continue to be the main concern through the end of the work week and into the weekend. There is a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts across much of S TX, with the northern Brush Country expected to be extreme. Highs ranging from low 90s along the immediate coastline to around 105 across the Rio Grande Plains are expected each day. These high temperatures combined with a humid airmass will lead to heat indices ranging from 105 to 110 across S TX. A few spots may briefly reach up to 116. Heat Advisories may be needed each day if heat indices of 110 or higher look to be widespread and last a couple of hours or more. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Continuing the VFR conditions across the TAF sites this afternoon. A shower is possible, but the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon, mainly near VCT. Otherwise, there is a chance (40-50% <5SM) for VSBY restrictions between 10z-14z at ALI and VCT with the increase in moisture and the mainly clear night. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 There is a low to medium 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters this evening and Tuesday. Otherwise, generally dry conditions will continue through the weekend across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. There is a low to medium (10-30%) chance across mainly the offshore waters on Wednesday, followed by 20% or less through the weekend. A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow can be expected through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 95 79 94 / 0 10 0 10 Victoria 78 96 76 96 / 0 40 0 30 Laredo 79 103 78 103 / 10 20 0 0 Alice 78 98 77 99 / 0 20 0 10 Rockport 82 94 82 94 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 80 103 78 104 / 0 10 0 0 Kingsville 78 97 79 97 / 0 20 0 10 Navy Corpus 83 91 83 92 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344- 346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL/86 LONG TERM....TE/81 AVIATION...JSL