860
FXUS64 KCRP 122016
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
316 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts Tuesday.

- Low to medium rain/thunderstorm chances east Tuesday.

We still have the blocking high pattern that has been producing the
hot, rain-free weather over the last couple of weeks. The pattern
looks like it will shift a bit over the next couple of days, but
through tomorrow night (Tuesday night), it looks like we will
continue the hot pattern with increasing moisture over the next few
days. High temperatures will range from around 90F near the shore,
to around 105 in the western Brush Country and the Rio Grande
Valley. Moisture will vary inversely with the highest near the shore
to the lowest in the  Rio Grande Valley, which when combined
produces a large area of 110 Heat index values over the Coastal
Bend and the Brush Country. The new heat risk impact shows moderate
to major heat impacts tomorrow was well.

With the increase in moisture for Tuesday, and a 500 mb tropical
wave sneaking into northern Mexico, there is a low to medium chance
for showers and thunderstorms to push into the forecast area during
Tuesday afternoon with the sea breeze, and possibly (low chance(15-
25%)) the rain pushing through the Brush Country through the
evening. Otherwise, tonight and Tuesday night will be muggy with
lows ranging from 75 to 85F each night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Key Messages:

- An Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across the northern Brush
Country to a moderate to major risk across the remainder of South
Texas through the weekend.

Not much change with the overall forecast through the week and into
the weekend. Summer time conditions will continue with hot and humid
days and muggy nights and generally rain free for most of South
Texas.

Mid/upper level high pressure across Texas will shift eastward
Wednesday and Thursday as an inverted trough tracks around the
southern periphery of the high. There is also a trough progged to
move east across the plains. The inverted trough is progged to slide
west to northwest across S and W TX and northeastern Mexico. The
high pressure will still be an influence on the weather across S TX,
but a deeper southeast flow will lead to slightly deeper moisture
across the area. PWATs are forecast to be around 2 inches across the
eastern half of S TX on Wednesday. The moisture combined with a
moderately unstable airmass and low level convergence along the sea
breeze, will be sufficient for convective development. The best
chance will be across the Victoria Crossroads where the capping
inversion is progged to be weakest. Although these conditions will
be present on Wednesday, the chance of convection will be low to
medium (20-35%) across the Victoria Crossroads and very low to low
(5-14%) across the remainder of S TX due to the continued influence
from the high pressure.

Moisture will be more limited Thursday with PWATs generally 1.5-1.8
inches. Thus, rain chances will be lower with a 10-15% chance across
the Victoria Crossroads. Similar conditions continue into Friday. No
mention of precipitation over the weekend as the chances are very
low (1-10%). Overall, through the latter half of this week and into
the weekend, most locations across S TX will be rain free.

Heat will continue to be the main concern through the end of the
work week and into the weekend. There is a moderate to major risk of
heat related impacts across much of S TX, with the northern Brush
Country expected to be extreme. Highs ranging from low 90s along the
immediate coastline to around 105 across the Rio Grande Plains are
expected each day. These high temperatures combined with a humid
airmass will lead to heat indices ranging from 105 to 110 across S
TX. A few spots may briefly reach up to 116. Heat Advisories may be
needed each day if heat indices of 110 or higher look to be
widespread and last a couple of hours or more.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Continuing the VFR conditions across the TAF sites this afternoon.
A shower is possible, but the chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon, mainly near VCT.
Otherwise, there is a chance (40-50% <5SM) for VSBY restrictions
between 10z-14z at ALI and VCT with the increase in moisture and
the mainly clear night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

There is a low to medium 20-40% chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters this evening and Tuesday.
Otherwise, generally dry conditions will continue through the
weekend across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. There is a
low to medium (10-30%) chance across mainly the offshore waters
on Wednesday, followed by 20% or less through the weekend. A weak
to moderate south-southeasterly flow can be expected through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  95  79  94 /   0  10   0  10
Victoria          78  96  76  96 /   0  40   0  30
Laredo            79 103  78 103 /  10  20   0   0
Alice             78  98  77  99 /   0  20   0  10
Rockport          82  94  82  94 /   0  10   0  10
Cotulla           80 103  78 104 /   0  10   0   0
Kingsville        78  97  79  97 /   0  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  91  83  92 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344-
     346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...JSL