735
FXUS64 KCRP 160749
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
249 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance (<5%) of excessive heavy rain today.

- Low to medium (20-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms for
Monday over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains

- Minor to moderate heat impact risk across South Texas, today and
Monday.


Most of the key messages for this forecast cycle focus on today as
the PWAT values remain over 2.00" over the Rio Grande Plains and the
Brush Country. The chances of rain (>15%) remain south of TX-624 and
358 with the highest chances (60%) in the area south of LRD in the
Rio Grande Plains. At 07z/16 (this morning), there is little
activity on radar, expect for mainly light shower/sprinkles/virga in
the Rio Grande Plains with are focused on a sfc trough that runs
from the Gulf and up the RGV and a weak 500 mb shortwave that is
slowly moving toward the forecast area. While the showers will
continue into the morning, the expectation is that there will be an
uptick of activity by the afternoon as we reach peak heating and the
500 mb shortwave is in the forecast area. PWAT values will remain
above 2.00" and with slow moving showers and thunderstorms it would
not be out of the question for a localized flooding. However, as we
get closer to evening, then troughs move out of South Texas and are
replaced with the 500 mb ridge reasserting itself over the Panhandle
and sfc high building down from the Ohio Valley. Dry air builds into
the region as well overnight, with little wind flow over the region,
and low level moisture from the rain we run a risk (20-40%) for
patchy fog, especially near Alice and Victoria.

With the 500 mb and sfc ridges building back into South Texas, skies
will become mostly sunny for Tuesday and with that gradual warming
over the next couple of days. Temperatures will begin to warm
gradually, with around 90 in the southwest (LRD) to near 100
(Victoria Crossroads) today, and mid 90s to around 100 on Tuesday.
The heat index risk, is mainly minor today(there are some area of
moderate), and a split of minor and moderate for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts mid to late week.

Ridging aloft will maintain generally benign weather conditions
across South Texas through the Extended range. The combination of
warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints will continue to pose our
main threat, as heat index values climb back into the 105-114 range.
Heat Advisories will likely be required, with the warmest days
expected to be Wednesday through Friday. The HeatRisk will be at
Moderate to Major levels through the end of the work week.
Therefore, heat related impacts will be possible.

A few showers and thunderstorms may still be able to develop daily
along the sea breeze provided enough low-level moisture available,
but PoPs will remain below 20% all week. By the weekend, a mid-level
trough is progged to transition into the Central Plains, while the
center of the High drifts southwestward. However, the energy
associated to the aforementioned system will stay well north of the
area, limiting our convective chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Shower activity has been diminishing over the last couple of
hours. Some isolated showers may linger through the night but it
very well could be virga due to dry air from H8-H5. Lingering low
level moisture will lead to a brief period of MVFR ceilings at
LRD and patchy fog at ALI/VCT around sunrise. If we are able to
clear out any upper level clouds, it`s possible we see dense fog
develop but chances are low at this time. VFR returns by mid
morning as southeast winds increase to around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A weak south to southeast flow will continue through Tuesday.
There is a low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms in the
waters this afternoon. Onshore flow will then strengthen slightly to
weak to moderate through next weekend. There is a low (15-30%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  75  92  77 /  10   0  10   0
Victoria          97  74  96  74 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo            90  75  94  76 /  60  10  20   0
Alice             94  73  96  75 /  30   0  10   0
Rockport          92  77  92  79 /  10   0  10   0
Cotulla           95  75  97  77 /  10   0  10   0
Kingsville        92  74  94  77 /  40   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       88  79  88  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...TC