575
FXUS64 KCRP 130720
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect for portions of South Texas through
  this evening.

- Low to medium rain/thunderstorm chances east today and Wednesday.

Low to medium (20-40%) rain and thunderstorm chances remain in
the forecast today as a moist airmass combines with a passing mid
level disturbance on the southwestern periphery of the high to
spark some shower activity. Rain chances will start off higher
over the coastal waters in the morning, before transitioning into
the Coastal Plains by the afternoon hours along the seabreeze. The
convective activity is progged to taper off during the overnight
hours tonight, but another round is then expected on Wednesday,
mainly along the seabreeze (PoPs 20-30%).

Another couple of hot and humid days are in store for South Texas
today and tomorrow with highs ranging from the upper 80s along the
coast to near 105 out west. With the moist airmass in place,
dangerous heat index values can be expected both afternoons, with
values up to 114 degrees at some coastal and inland locations. A
Heat Advisory is in effect from noon through 7 PM this evening
for the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Another Advisory is
likely to be required on Wednesday as conditions will be very
similar to today. If spending time outside, don`t forget to drink
plenty of water, wear light-colored and loose clothing, and take
frequent breaks from the heat. Also, look before you lock and keep
your pets safe from the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Key Messages:

- A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected
  daily through early next week.

Hot and humid. I know we are all tired of hearing it, but it is
August in South Texas so we know that`s what we are going to be
saying for awhile.

High pressure will be in control through much of the period leading
to higher temperatures. A southeasterly flow will continue which
will keep deeper moisture in the area (PWATs still expected to be
around 1.8-2" through early next week). While unlikely, moisture
could still be sufficient for a few showers or thunderstorms along
the sea breeze in the afternoons.

Heat is still our main concern through early next week. Most areas
will be in a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts, with
those across the northern Brush Country experiencing an extreme risk
of heat related impacts. Heat index values up to 114 are likely each
afternoon through early next week, with isolated locations reaching
above 115. Heat Advisories will probably be needed each day, with a
low potential for Excessive Heat Warnings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with lingering
upper-level cirrus moving northwest across South Texas. Kept
TEMPOs for MVFR vsbys at ALI/VCT due to light winds, mostly clear
skies, and persistence. There is a 30-40% chance of showers and
thunderstorms from the late morning through the afternoon over the
Victoria Crossroads, potentially impacting VCT. Southeasterly
winds increase tomorrow afternoon with sustained 10-15 knots and
gusts 20-25 knots over the Coastal Plains, slightly stronger as it
reaches LRD/COT near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

There is a low to medium 20-40% chance for showers and
thunderstorms through the day Wednesday. Otherwise, generally dry
conditions will continue through early next week across most of
the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. A weak to moderate south-
southeasterly flow can be expected through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  79  94  79 /  10   0  10   0
Victoria          97  77  96  77 /  40   0  30   0
Laredo           103  78 103  78 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             99  77  99  77 /  10   0  10   0
Rockport          94  82  94  82 /  10   0  10   0
Cotulla          104  79 104  78 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        98  79  97  79 /  10   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       92  83  92  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ234-241>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...EMF