287
FXUS64 KCRP 132005
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
305 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
  across the Victoria Crossroads

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week

Mid to upper level ridging will continue to build into the region
tonight through tomorrow night, promoting above normal temperatures.
Moisture will also begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as PWAT
around 2" move into the area. The above normal temperatures combined
with the increased moisture will lead to a high chance of Heat
Advisory conditions (heat index over 109 degrees for more than two
hours) tomorrow across the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and areas of
the Victoria Crossroads. While heat index values tomorrow are
expected to be high enough to meet our criteria, the durations of
those values will be the kicker. Due to low confidence in the
duration at this time, did not issue the advisory for tomorrow at
this time. Regardless of whether a heat advisory is issued or not,
dangerous heat is expected to continue tomorrow with a moderate to
major chance of heat-related impacts. Other than the heat, most of
the region will remain dry with the Victoria Crossroads being the
only region with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon as the seabreeze moves in.

Please continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities,
wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat
stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before
locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and
providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local
media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Key Messages:

- A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected
daily through early next week

The overall pattern at 500 mb shows the current ridge over Texas to
continue moving east, as the 500 mb shortwave trough in the Plains
moves to the east splitting the ridge and pushing the current core
off, into the Atlantic. However, the ridge to the west, will re-
establish itself just upstream of Texas and begin to build east
again. So, for the details, a southeasterly flow will continue which
will keep deeper moisture over South Texas (PWATs still expected to
be around 1.8-2" through early next week). While unlikely, moisture
could still be sufficient for a few showers or thunderstorms along
the sea breeze in the afternoons.

Heat indices will continue at or above 110F mainly along the
Coastal Bend and in portions of the Victoria Crossroads, and an area
in the Western Brush Country (mainly LaSalle and McMullen counties)
through next Tuesday. The heat impact risk map shows that most of
the region will experience moderate to major heat impacts, with
smaller portions experiencing extreme heat impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle with gusty
winds this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease around 02/03z
across the eastern sites and 08/09z across the western sites
before picking up once again late tomorrow morning into tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected tonight through Wednesday
night with a low chance of rain tomorrow across the offshore Gulf
waters. Generally dry conditions will continue through early next week
across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. A weak to moderate
south-southeasterly flow can be expected through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  94  80  95 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          77  96  78  97 /   0  30   0  20
Laredo            78 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             77  99  77  99 /   0  10   0  10
Rockport          82  94  82  94 /   0  10   0  10
Cotulla           78 104  79 105 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  96  79  97 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  91  83  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247-
     342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...JCP