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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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376 FXUS64 KCRP 132345 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 645 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Key Messages: - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday across the Victoria Crossroads - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week Mid to upper level ridging will continue to build into the region tonight through tomorrow night, promoting above normal temperatures. Moisture will also begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as PWAT around 2" move into the area. The above normal temperatures combined with the increased moisture will lead to a high chance of Heat Advisory conditions (heat index over 109 degrees for more than two hours) tomorrow across the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and areas of the Victoria Crossroads. While heat index values tomorrow are expected to be high enough to meet our criteria, the durations of those values will be the kicker. Due to low confidence in the duration at this time, did not issue the advisory for tomorrow at this time. Regardless of whether a heat advisory is issued or not, dangerous heat is expected to continue tomorrow with a moderate to major chance of heat-related impacts. Other than the heat, most of the region will remain dry with the Victoria Crossroads being the only region with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon as the seabreeze moves in. Please continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Key Messages: - A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected daily through early next week The overall pattern at 500 mb shows the current ridge over Texas to continue moving east, as the 500 mb shortwave trough in the Plains moves to the east splitting the ridge and pushing the current core off, into the Atlantic. However, the ridge to the west, will re- establish itself just upstream of Texas and begin to build east again. So, for the details, a southeasterly flow will continue which will keep deeper moisture over South Texas (PWATs still expected to be around 1.8-2" through early next week). While unlikely, moisture could still be sufficient for a few showers or thunderstorms along the sea breeze in the afternoons. Heat indices will continue at or above 110F mainly along the Coastal Bend and in portions of the Victoria Crossroads, and an area in the Western Brush Country (mainly LaSalle and McMullen counties) through next Tuesday. The heat impact risk map shows that most of the region will experience moderate to major heat impacts, with smaller portions experiencing extreme heat impacts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail the TAF period with a very low chance of patchy fog over ALI/VCT from 10-13Z. Wind gusts 20-25 knots will persist for the next few hours over ALI/COT/LRD before weakening overnight. There is a low (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Victoria Crossroads (VCT) tomorrow but confidence is too low to include any mention at this time. Southeasterly winds will restrengthen in the afternoon to sustained around 12 knots and gusts around 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected tonight through Wednesday night with a low chance of rain tomorrow across the offshore Gulf waters. Generally dry conditions will continue through early next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow can be expected through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 94 80 95 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 77 96 78 97 / 0 30 0 20 Laredo 78 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 99 77 99 / 0 10 0 10 Rockport 82 94 82 94 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 78 104 79 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 96 79 97 / 0 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 83 91 83 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....JSL AVIATION...EMF/94