230
FXUS64 KCRP 140521
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
  across the Victoria Crossroads

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week

Mid to upper level ridging will continue to build into the region
tonight through tomorrow night, promoting above normal temperatures.
Moisture will also begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as PWAT
around 2" move into the area. The above normal temperatures combined
with the increased moisture will lead to a high chance of Heat
Advisory conditions (heat index over 109 degrees for more than two
hours) tomorrow across the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and areas of
the Victoria Crossroads. While heat index values tomorrow are
expected to be high enough to meet our criteria, the durations of
those values will be the kicker. Due to low confidence in the
duration at this time, did not issue the advisory for tomorrow at
this time. Regardless of whether a heat advisory is issued or not,
dangerous heat is expected to continue tomorrow with a moderate to
major chance of heat-related impacts. Other than the heat, most of
the region will remain dry with the Victoria Crossroads being the
only region with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon as the seabreeze moves in.

Please continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities,
wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat
stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before
locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and
providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local
media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Key Messages:

- A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected
daily through early next week

The overall pattern at 500 mb shows the current ridge over Texas to
continue moving east, as the 500 mb shortwave trough in the Plains
moves to the east splitting the ridge and pushing the current core
off, into the Atlantic. However, the ridge to the west, will re-
establish itself just upstream of Texas and begin to build east
again. So, for the details, a southeasterly flow will continue which
will keep deeper moisture over South Texas (PWATs still expected to
be around 1.8-2" through early next week). While unlikely, moisture
could still be sufficient for a few showers or thunderstorms along
the sea breeze in the afternoons.

Heat indices will continue at or above 110F mainly along the
Coastal Bend and in portions of the Victoria Crossroads, and an area
in the Western Brush Country (mainly LaSalle and McMullen counties)
through next Tuesday. The heat impact risk map shows that most of
the region will experience moderate to major heat impacts, with
smaller portions experiencing extreme heat impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Current VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light
winds under mostly clear skies early this morning will lead to a
very low chance of patchy fog development over the inland Coastal
Plains. Therefore kept a TEMPO of MVFR vsbys over ALI/VCT from 10-
13Z. Otherwise, southeasterly winds will increase from the afternoon
into the evening with sustained 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots.
There is a low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
Victoria Crossroads in the afternoon but confidence remains to be
too low to include any mention at VCT at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected tonight through Wednesday
night with a low chance of rain tomorrow across the offshore Gulf
waters. Generally dry conditions will continue through early next week
across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. A weak to moderate
south-southeasterly flow can be expected through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  95  80  96 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          78  97  77  98 /   0  20   0  10
Laredo            78 103  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             77  99  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          82  94  83  95 /   0  10   0   0
Cotulla           79 105  79 106 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        79  97  79  98 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  91  83  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...EMF/94