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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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230 FXUS64 KCRP 140521 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Key Messages: - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday across the Victoria Crossroads - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week Mid to upper level ridging will continue to build into the region tonight through tomorrow night, promoting above normal temperatures. Moisture will also begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as PWAT around 2" move into the area. The above normal temperatures combined with the increased moisture will lead to a high chance of Heat Advisory conditions (heat index over 109 degrees for more than two hours) tomorrow across the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and areas of the Victoria Crossroads. While heat index values tomorrow are expected to be high enough to meet our criteria, the durations of those values will be the kicker. Due to low confidence in the duration at this time, did not issue the advisory for tomorrow at this time. Regardless of whether a heat advisory is issued or not, dangerous heat is expected to continue tomorrow with a moderate to major chance of heat-related impacts. Other than the heat, most of the region will remain dry with the Victoria Crossroads being the only region with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon as the seabreeze moves in. Please continue to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Key Messages: - A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected daily through early next week The overall pattern at 500 mb shows the current ridge over Texas to continue moving east, as the 500 mb shortwave trough in the Plains moves to the east splitting the ridge and pushing the current core off, into the Atlantic. However, the ridge to the west, will re- establish itself just upstream of Texas and begin to build east again. So, for the details, a southeasterly flow will continue which will keep deeper moisture over South Texas (PWATs still expected to be around 1.8-2" through early next week). While unlikely, moisture could still be sufficient for a few showers or thunderstorms along the sea breeze in the afternoons. Heat indices will continue at or above 110F mainly along the Coastal Bend and in portions of the Victoria Crossroads, and an area in the Western Brush Country (mainly LaSalle and McMullen counties) through next Tuesday. The heat impact risk map shows that most of the region will experience moderate to major heat impacts, with smaller portions experiencing extreme heat impacts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Current VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light winds under mostly clear skies early this morning will lead to a very low chance of patchy fog development over the inland Coastal Plains. Therefore kept a TEMPO of MVFR vsbys over ALI/VCT from 10- 13Z. Otherwise, southeasterly winds will increase from the afternoon into the evening with sustained 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. There is a low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Victoria Crossroads in the afternoon but confidence remains to be too low to include any mention at VCT at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected tonight through Wednesday night with a low chance of rain tomorrow across the offshore Gulf waters. Generally dry conditions will continue through early next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow can be expected through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 95 80 96 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 78 97 77 98 / 0 20 0 10 Laredo 78 103 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 99 77 100 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 82 94 83 95 / 0 10 0 0 Cotulla 79 105 79 106 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 79 97 79 98 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 91 83 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....JSL AVIATION...EMF/94