056
FXUS64 KCRP 140704
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
204 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM for the Coastal Bend.

- Low chance of thunderstorms east today.

Yet another couple of hot and humid summer days are in store for
South Texas today and Thursday as ridging builds back up aloft
from the west. Highs will range from the upper 80s along the coast
to near 105 over the Brush Country both days, with afternoon
dewpoints in the 70s along the Coastal Plains. This will result in
dangerous heat conditions, especially along coastal and inland
portions of the Coastal Bend. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be
in effect for this area from noon through 7 PM today. Another
Advisory will likely be required on Thursday as conditions will be
very similar.

A weak passing disturbance will move across the region today,
combining with some pockets of deeper moisture (PWATs ~2.0") to
spark a few showers and thunderstorms. There is a low (20%)
chance of convection this afternoon, mainly focused along the
seabreeze and impacting the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal
Plains. Another low chance of afternoon showers is in the
forecast on Thursday along the seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Key Messages:

- A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected
  daily through early next week.

Very little has changed from the last forecast. The mid-level ridge
over Texas will continue to move east as a shortwave over the Plains
moves east, splitting the high. The western portion of the high will
redevelop and build to the east back over Texas. The end result of
this is that our weather will generally hold steady, with
southeasterly flow continuing the deep moisture over South Texas
(PWATs remain 1.8-2.0").

Afternoon heat indices will continue to reach 110F or above, mainly
along the Coastal Bend, portions of the Victoria Crossroad, and
portions of the western Brush Country through next Tuesday. The heat
impact risk map shows that most of the region will experience
moderate to major heat impacts, with smaller portions experiencing
extreme heat impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Current VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light
winds under mostly clear skies early this morning will lead to a
very low chance of patchy fog development over the inland Coastal
Plains. Therefore kept a TEMPO of MVFR vsbys over ALI/VCT from 10-
13Z. Otherwise, southeasterly winds will increase from the afternoon
into the evening with sustained 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots.
There is a low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
Victoria Crossroads in the afternoon but confidence remains to be
too low to include any mention at VCT at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow is expected
to continue through early next week. A few showers will be
possible over the marine zones today. Otherwise, generally rain-
free conditions will continue through early next week across most
of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  79  95  80 /  10   0  10   0
Victoria          96  78  97  77 /  20   0  20   0
Laredo           103  78 103  79 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             99  77 100  77 /  10   0  10   0
Rockport          95  82  94  82 /  10   0  10   0
Cotulla          104  78 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        99  78  97  79 /  10   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       92  83  92  83 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ242>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...EMF