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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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056 FXUS64 KCRP 140704 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 204 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM for the Coastal Bend. - Low chance of thunderstorms east today. Yet another couple of hot and humid summer days are in store for South Texas today and Thursday as ridging builds back up aloft from the west. Highs will range from the upper 80s along the coast to near 105 over the Brush Country both days, with afternoon dewpoints in the 70s along the Coastal Plains. This will result in dangerous heat conditions, especially along coastal and inland portions of the Coastal Bend. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in effect for this area from noon through 7 PM today. Another Advisory will likely be required on Thursday as conditions will be very similar. A weak passing disturbance will move across the region today, combining with some pockets of deeper moisture (PWATs ~2.0") to spark a few showers and thunderstorms. There is a low (20%) chance of convection this afternoon, mainly focused along the seabreeze and impacting the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. Another low chance of afternoon showers is in the forecast on Thursday along the seabreeze. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Key Messages: - A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected daily through early next week. Very little has changed from the last forecast. The mid-level ridge over Texas will continue to move east as a shortwave over the Plains moves east, splitting the high. The western portion of the high will redevelop and build to the east back over Texas. The end result of this is that our weather will generally hold steady, with southeasterly flow continuing the deep moisture over South Texas (PWATs remain 1.8-2.0"). Afternoon heat indices will continue to reach 110F or above, mainly along the Coastal Bend, portions of the Victoria Crossroad, and portions of the western Brush Country through next Tuesday. The heat impact risk map shows that most of the region will experience moderate to major heat impacts, with smaller portions experiencing extreme heat impacts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Current VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light winds under mostly clear skies early this morning will lead to a very low chance of patchy fog development over the inland Coastal Plains. Therefore kept a TEMPO of MVFR vsbys over ALI/VCT from 10- 13Z. Otherwise, southeasterly winds will increase from the afternoon into the evening with sustained 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. There is a low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Victoria Crossroads in the afternoon but confidence remains to be too low to include any mention at VCT at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow is expected to continue through early next week. A few showers will be possible over the marine zones today. Otherwise, generally rain- free conditions will continue through early next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 79 95 80 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 96 78 97 77 / 20 0 20 0 Laredo 103 78 103 79 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 99 77 100 77 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 95 82 94 82 / 10 0 10 0 Cotulla 104 78 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 99 78 97 79 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 92 83 92 83 / 10 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM/88 LONG TERM....LS/77 AVIATION...EMF