761
FXUS64 KCRP 141811
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
111 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM for the Coastal Bend.

- Low chance of thunderstorms east today.

Yet another couple of hot and humid summer days are in store for
South Texas today and Thursday as ridging builds back up aloft
from the west. Highs will range from the upper 80s along the coast
to near 105 over the Brush Country both days, with afternoon
dewpoints in the 70s along the Coastal Plains. This will result in
dangerous heat conditions, especially along coastal and inland
portions of the Coastal Bend. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be
in effect for this area from noon through 7 PM today. Another
Advisory will likely be required on Thursday as conditions will be
very similar.

A weak passing disturbance will move across the region today,
combining with some pockets of deeper moisture (PWATs ~2.0") to
spark a few showers and thunderstorms. There is a low (20%)
chance of convection this afternoon, mainly focused along the
seabreeze and impacting the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal
Plains. Another low chance of afternoon showers is in the
forecast on Thursday along the seabreeze.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Key Messages:

- A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected
  daily through early next week.

Very little has changed from the last forecast. The mid-level ridge
over Texas will continue to move east as a shortwave over the Plains
moves east, splitting the high. The western portion of the high will
redevelop and build to the east back over Texas. The end result of
this is that our weather will generally hold steady, with
southeasterly flow continuing the deep moisture over South Texas
(PWATs remain 1.8-2.0").

Afternoon heat indices will continue to reach 110F or above, mainly
along the Coastal Bend, portions of the Victoria Crossroad, and
portions of the western Brush Country through next Tuesday. The heat
impact risk map shows that most of the region will experience
moderate to major heat impacts, with smaller portions experiencing
extreme heat impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Most of the TAF period will be VFR over the region. The only
caveats will be the isolated showers and thunderstorms with the
sea breeze this afternoon, which due the lack of coverage (<20%)
will leave out of the TAFs until the showers and thunderstorms
threaten, as needed. The other caveat is the potential for fog
around KVCT and KALI between 09z and 13z Thursday morning. Those
sites have been back and forth over the last few mornings, and
expect that VCT and ALI could see it again. It looks like there is
a 20% chance of dropping below 5 SM at VCT and ALI Thursday
morning so have left the restrictions out for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow is expected
to continue through early next week. A few showers will be
possible over the marine zones today. Otherwise, generally rain-
free conditions will continue through early next week across most
of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  95  80  95 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          78  97  77  98 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            78 103  79 103 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             77 100  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          82  94  82  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           78 104  78 105 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  97  79  98 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  92  83  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344-
     346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...JSL/86