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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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761 FXUS64 KCRP 141811 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM for the Coastal Bend. - Low chance of thunderstorms east today. Yet another couple of hot and humid summer days are in store for South Texas today and Thursday as ridging builds back up aloft from the west. Highs will range from the upper 80s along the coast to near 105 over the Brush Country both days, with afternoon dewpoints in the 70s along the Coastal Plains. This will result in dangerous heat conditions, especially along coastal and inland portions of the Coastal Bend. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in effect for this area from noon through 7 PM today. Another Advisory will likely be required on Thursday as conditions will be very similar. A weak passing disturbance will move across the region today, combining with some pockets of deeper moisture (PWATs ~2.0") to spark a few showers and thunderstorms. There is a low (20%) chance of convection this afternoon, mainly focused along the seabreeze and impacting the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. Another low chance of afternoon showers is in the forecast on Thursday along the seabreeze. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Key Messages: - A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected daily through early next week. Very little has changed from the last forecast. The mid-level ridge over Texas will continue to move east as a shortwave over the Plains moves east, splitting the high. The western portion of the high will redevelop and build to the east back over Texas. The end result of this is that our weather will generally hold steady, with southeasterly flow continuing the deep moisture over South Texas (PWATs remain 1.8-2.0"). Afternoon heat indices will continue to reach 110F or above, mainly along the Coastal Bend, portions of the Victoria Crossroad, and portions of the western Brush Country through next Tuesday. The heat impact risk map shows that most of the region will experience moderate to major heat impacts, with smaller portions experiencing extreme heat impacts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Most of the TAF period will be VFR over the region. The only caveats will be the isolated showers and thunderstorms with the sea breeze this afternoon, which due the lack of coverage (<20%) will leave out of the TAFs until the showers and thunderstorms threaten, as needed. The other caveat is the potential for fog around KVCT and KALI between 09z and 13z Thursday morning. Those sites have been back and forth over the last few mornings, and expect that VCT and ALI could see it again. It looks like there is a 20% chance of dropping below 5 SM at VCT and ALI Thursday morning so have left the restrictions out for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow is expected to continue through early next week. A few showers will be possible over the marine zones today. Otherwise, generally rain- free conditions will continue through early next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 95 80 95 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 78 97 77 98 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 78 103 79 103 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 77 100 77 100 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 82 94 82 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 78 104 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 97 79 98 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 92 83 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344- 346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...JSL/86