956
FXUS64 KCRP 141948
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
248 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM for the Coastal Bend.

- A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected
Thursday

- Probable heat advisory (>60%) for Thursday along the Coastal Bend

Caliente, Chaud, Caldo, Quente, Cald. Just trying to figure out
another way to say hot in the discussion. So first, the 500 mb
shortwave trough that has been kicking off the mesoscale convective
systems in the Plains will continue east, flattening the 500 mb
ridge over Texas keeping the caliente conditions over South Texas.
Over the next 48 hours, the ridge is expected to build back over the
Rockies, and continue the chaud weather. The only "relief" is the
isolated showers/thunderstorms along the sea breeze each day. The
best chances for the rain is near VCT, with lower pops south along
the Coastal Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through early
next week.

Hot and humid conditions continue across South Texas as we move
deeper into August, a pattern we`re all too familiar with this time
of year. Mid-level high pressure remains the dominant feature, and
it is expected to strengthen over the weekend, leading to a gradual
increase in the already warm temperatures. A persistent south-
southeasterly surface flow will maintain deeper moisture in the
region, with PWATs hovering around 1.6 - 2.0 inches through early
next week. Although chances are low, this moisture could still
trigger a few isolated showers or storms (10-15% chance) along the
sea breeze during the afternoon hours.

High temperatures will mainly reach the low to mid 90s from the
coast to far inland areas of the Coastal Plains, with the Brush
Country and Rio Grande Plains hitting the upper 90s to low 100s.
Each subsequent day will see temperatures rise by about 1 degF,
resulting in widespread triple-digit heat across the Rio Grande
Plains, Brush Country, and portions of the Coastal Plains by late
weekend and into early next week. Afternoon heat indices are
expected to reach 110 degF or higher, particularly along the Coastal
Bend, the Victoria Crossroads, and parts of the western Brush
Country through next Tuesday.

Given these extreme heat conditions, it is vital to continue
practicing heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
sun, avoid strenuous activities, and wear loose, lightweight
clothing. Be aware of the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke,
and always check your vehicle before locking it. Additionally,
ensure pets are kept safe by bringing them indoors and providing
ample water and shelter.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Most of the TAF period will be VFR over the region. The only
caveats will be the isolated showers and thunderstorms with the
sea breeze this afternoon, which due the lack of coverage (<20%)
will leave out of the TAFs until the showers and thunderstorms
threaten, as needed. The other caveat is the potential for fog
around KVCT and KALI between 09z and 13z Thursday morning. Those
sites have been back and forth over the last few mornings, and
expect that VCT and ALI could see it again. It looks like there is
a 20% chance of dropping below 5 SM at VCT and ALI Thursday
morning so have left the restrictions out for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow is expected to continue
through early next week. Generally rain-free conditions will
continue through early next week across most of the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  95  80  96 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          78  97  77  97 /   0  10   0  20
Laredo            78 103  79 104 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             77  99  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          83  94  82  95 /   0  10   0   0
Cotulla           79 105  79 105 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  97  79  98 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  91  83  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344-
     346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...JSL