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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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982 FXUS64 KCRP 142338 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 638 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM for the Coastal Bend. - A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected Thursday - Probable heat advisory (>60%) for Thursday along the Coastal Bend Caliente, Chaud, Caldo, Quente, Cald. Just trying to figure out another way to say hot in the discussion. So first, the 500 mb shortwave trough that has been kicking off the mesoscale convective systems in the Plains will continue east, flattening the 500 mb ridge over Texas keeping the caliente conditions over South Texas. Over the next 48 hours, the ridge is expected to build back over the Rockies, and continue the chaud weather. The only "relief" is the isolated showers/thunderstorms along the sea breeze each day. The best chances for the rain is near VCT, with lower pops south along the Coastal Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts through early next week. Hot and humid conditions continue across South Texas as we move deeper into August, a pattern we`re all too familiar with this time of year. Mid-level high pressure remains the dominant feature, and it is expected to strengthen over the weekend, leading to a gradual increase in the already warm temperatures. A persistent south- southeasterly surface flow will maintain deeper moisture in the region, with PWATs hovering around 1.6 - 2.0 inches through early next week. Although chances are low, this moisture could still trigger a few isolated showers or storms (10-15% chance) along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will mainly reach the low to mid 90s from the coast to far inland areas of the Coastal Plains, with the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains hitting the upper 90s to low 100s. Each subsequent day will see temperatures rise by about 1 degF, resulting in widespread triple-digit heat across the Rio Grande Plains, Brush Country, and portions of the Coastal Plains by late weekend and into early next week. Afternoon heat indices are expected to reach 110 degF or higher, particularly along the Coastal Bend, the Victoria Crossroads, and parts of the western Brush Country through next Tuesday. Given these extreme heat conditions, it is vital to continue practicing heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous activities, and wear loose, lightweight clothing. Be aware of the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke, and always check your vehicle before locking it. Additionally, ensure pets are kept safe by bringing them indoors and providing ample water and shelter. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period across South Texas. Showers and storms around the Victoria Crossroads earlier this afternoon have dissipated and rain chances will be minimal through the forecast. As mentioned earlier, there remains a low 20% chance of fog over the inland Coastal Plains, potentially imapcting ALI/VCT. Since there is at least some guidance compared to the none the past couple days, I`ve included a TEMPO for brief MVFR vsbys from 10-14Z. Southeasterly winds will restrengthen tomorrow afternoon with sustained 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow is expected to continue through early next week. Generally rain-free conditions will continue through early next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 95 80 96 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 78 97 77 97 / 0 10 0 20 Laredo 78 103 79 104 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 77 99 77 100 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 83 94 82 95 / 0 10 0 0 Cotulla 79 105 79 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 97 79 98 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 91 83 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>247-342>344- 346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...EMF/94