Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
198 FXUS64 KCRP 012344 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Medium to high (40-80%) chances for rain this afternoon across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country and a low to medium (20-50%) on Wednesday. - Seasonably hot and dry for remainder of the week including the Holiday Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Remnants of Barry will continue to stream northward over the brush country and Rio grande plains this afternoon through Wednesday, steered around the western periphery of the mid level ridge parked over Southeast TX. Given the weakness aloft out west combined with abundant tropical moisture (PWs 2.3") and weak cap, have increased PoPs to medium 40-50% out west for Wednesday. Isolated showers elsewhere. By Thursday the mid level ridge nudges a little closer to the area and the low levels dry out. However will still maintain a low (10-20%) chance of PoPs, given that forecast soundings show the cap breaking in the afternoon. With less cloud cover and a subsident ridge building aloft, temperatures will gradually warm through the work week and will approach 100 degrees out west by the weekend. However, this is still near the climatological normal for this time of year. But given the holiday weekend, with many enjoying outdoor activities, it will be important to remember to remain hydrated and take frequent breaks to avoid overheating. For more heat safety information, check our website at weather.gov/heat. By early next week the mid level ridge will shift westward to the desert southwest while an inverted trough moves into the western gulf. This will keep our weather pattern mostly hot and dry with fairly light onshore winds. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Current radar imagery shows a line of showers/thunderstorms moving in from the Rio Grande Valley. HRRR guidance wants to move this line in the vicinity of KALI/KCRP, but guidance also shows the line will fizzle out as it moves north. For this reason, I have added TEMPO groups for these sights, including KLRD, through midnight. IFR ceilings and visibility will be possible for a small window Wednesday morning near the LRD terminal, but not confident enough to include in the terminal yet. Daytime heating will initiate scattered showers and a few storms across the west by mid to late Wednesday morning. Added a PROB30 group for KVCT should another outflow boundary with storms move through as depicted in some model guidance. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) flow is expected to continue this week and into the holiday weekend. Medium (30-50%) rain chances are expected this afternoon gradually decreasing tonight before dropping to under 20% on Wednesday. Gusty winds will be possible in and around any thunderstorm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 90 77 91 / 30 20 10 10 Victoria 73 92 75 92 / 10 20 10 20 Laredo 75 91 76 95 / 40 30 20 10 Alice 73 91 74 92 / 40 30 10 10 Rockport 80 90 81 90 / 20 20 10 20 Cotulla 75 92 76 95 / 50 50 30 30 Kingsville 74 89 75 91 / 40 20 10 10 Navy Corpus 80 88 81 89 / 30 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM/75 AVIATION...AE/82