623
FXUS64 KCRP 151055
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
555 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM for the Coastal Bend,
  portions of the Victoria Crossroads, and Jim Wells County.

- Moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected
  Friday

I would love to tell you that the ridge is breaking down and we
are going to have cooler weather for the next couple days, but I`m
not a liar, so I can`t. It`s going to be hot...likely even a
little hotter today and Friday than it has been. Heat index
values will be up to 113 today, resulting in a Heat Advisory for
portions of the area. For the rest of the area, conditions will be
borderline with heat indices from 105-109. Conditions will be
much the same Friday. There is a very low chance of some afternoon
seabreeze showers along the immediate coast and over the Victoria
Crossroads, but confidence is too low to include this in the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

- Continued moderate to extreme risk of heat stress conditions
  expected through next week

With the ridge expected to build into next week, temperatures will
remain progged between 95-110 degrees through next week. Combine
this with the upper 70s to lower 80s dew points and this will yield
heat indices around 110 that will persist across South Texas. A
passing shortwave is expected to ride the periphery of the ridge
weakening it slightly at the beginning of the week. This at this
time isn`t expected to bring any precipitation chances due to the
presence of drier air aloft, though it will continue to be monitored
in future trends. The ridge is expected to retrograde west and is
expected to build back into our area allowing for a steady trend of
continued hot conditions with the occasional sea breeze/diurnally
driven pop-up thunderstorms through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

There is a low chance for brief MVFR ceilings and visibility this
morning across the Coastal Plains before VFR conditions return and
persist through the rest of the TAF period. Light south to
southeasterly winds are expected, with more moderate winds
expected in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow is expected to continue
through early next week. Dry conditions will persist through
early next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  80  96  79 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          96  77  98  77 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo           102  79 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  77 100  77 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          93  83  95  82 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla          104  79 105  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  79  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       91  83  91  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ234-241>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...LS/77