960
FXUS64 KCRP 151918
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
218 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM for the Coastal Bend.

- A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected
Friday

- Probable heat advisory (>60%) for Friday along the Coastal Bend
and a chance for a heat advisory (>30%) for Friday in the western
Brush Country.

The 500 mb shortwave trough that was in the Plains, is now moving
east into the Great Lakes, and has an associated sfc trough that
stretches into the southern New Mexico heat low/monsoonal trough. As
the parent 500 mb and sfc low continue to move east, flattening the
500 mb ridge east of Texas, the 500 mb ridge is beginning to build
back. The ridge is expected to continue the hot weather. The only
"relief" continues to be the isolated showers/thunderstorms along
the sea breeze each day. The best chances for the rain is near VCT,
with lower pops south along the Coastal Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Key Message:

- Moderate to Extreme risk of heat related impacts this weekend into
next week.

The long-term weather pattern for South Texas will be dominated by a
strong mid-level high centered over the Southern Plains, extending
it`s influence across our region. This high will re-enforce a ridge
across the western and central portions of the CONUS with a trough
over the far western and eastern sections of the country. This
blocking pattern will result in persistence and low rainfall chances
(<15%) through much of next week over the region.

Temperatures are the main story and are expected to remain above
normal with afternoon highs topping out in the 90s east to around
105 degrees out west. Dewpoints in the mid- to upper 70s combined
with hot temperatures will result in daily heat indices ranging
around 110 - 114 degrees with some locales briefly touching 115
degrees or so. Due to these conditions, moderate to extreme heat-
related impacts are expected so please remember to stay well
hydrated, wear light colored, loose fitting clothes and stay in air-
conditioning as much as possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Most of the TAF period will be VFR over the region. The only
caveats will be the isolated showers and thunderstorms with the
sea breeze this afternoon, which due the lack of coverage (<20%)
will leave out of the TAFs until the showers and thunderstorms
threaten, as needed. The other caveat is the potential for fog
around KVCT and KALI between 09z and 13z Friday morning. It looks
like there is a 30% chance of dropping below 5 SM at VCT and ALI
Friday morning so have left the restrictions out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow is expected to continue
through early next week. Generally dry conditions will persist
through early next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal
Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  96  79  96 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          77  97  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            79 103  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             77 100  76 100 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          82  94  81  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           79 106  78 105 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  98  78  98 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  92  83  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247-
     342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...JSL