Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
155 FXUS64 KCRP 101817 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Very low rain chances Thursday and Friday (>20%); low to medium chances (20-40%) across the eastern CWA this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 As mentioned in the previous discussion, the Saharan dust continues to be a forecast challenge. Models forecasted the presence of dust through the afternoon and into the overnight hours tonight before dissipating to our north. Current satellite data is not indicating any plume, so have backed off on the mention of haze for the Coastal Plains. While the presence of dust has not panned out, most areas will still remain on the dry side the rest of today. However, a stray shower cannot be ruled out, especially along and inland of the sea breeze. Overall, rain chances will remain very limited with only a very low (15%) chances of precipitation across inland areas through rest of the afternoon and overnight hours. By Friday, a weak mid-level disturbance drifts northward out of northern Mexico/Deep South Texas and begins to open up over our CWA. This disturbance will coincide will a slight increase in moisture allowing for a few isolated showers and storms to develop in the afternoon across the Coastal Plains and dissipate by evening. Into the weekend, the elongated disturbance aloft will linger across far western portions of South Texas, coinciding with the aforementioned gradual moisture return. This will support a modest uptick in rain chances Saturday and Sunday, with isolated to widely scattered showers possible, particularly along the sea breeze. PoPs will range from 20-40%, with activity peaking during the afternoon across the eastern CWA. The disturbance will shift out of the area by late Sunday, with drier air moving in next week. Models hint at "another" round of Saharan dust by midweek, which could further reduce rain chances and contribute to hazy skies. Temperatures are expected to trend slightly warmer into next week, with highs near or just above normal. Temperatures will likely top 100 degF across portions of the Brush Country by Monday/Tuesday. Heat risk will increase accordingly, rising from minor levels today to mostly moderate tomorrow through next Tuesday, with occasional periods of higher concerns for sensitive groups. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period with the exception of ALI and LRD. Another brief round of MVFR VSBYs for ALI was mentioned due to forecast patchy fog development from 11-13Z. Brief MVFR CIGs in LRD are also mentioned between 13-15Z. While it has been slow to appear in our area, models continue to indicate the presence of Saharan dust leading to hazy conditions, reduced VSBYs, and the hindrance of precipitation activity. Because of this, confidence in showers and storms remains low with a generally less than 15% chance across South Texas through the next 24 hours. South-southeasterly winds gusting to around 25 knots this afternoon will subside around sunset but are expected to return tomorrow around the late morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 A moderate (BF 4) south-southeasterly breeze can be expected across most of the waters into early next week. Low to moderate chances (20-40%) for showers/thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend before drier conditions take over on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 92 79 92 / 10 20 10 30 Victoria 76 92 77 92 / 10 20 10 40 Laredo 77 99 77 100 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 75 95 76 95 / 10 20 10 30 Rockport 81 90 82 90 / 10 20 10 30 Cotulla 77 99 78 99 / 10 10 10 20 Kingsville 75 92 77 93 / 10 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 81 89 82 89 / 10 20 10 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...KRS/98