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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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222 FXUS64 KCRP 152327 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 627 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM for the Coastal Bend. - A moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected Friday - Probable heat advisory (>60%) for Friday along the Coastal Bend and a chance for a heat advisory (>30%) for Friday in the western Brush Country. The 500 mb shortwave trough that was in the Plains, is now moving east into the Great Lakes, and has an associated sfc trough that stretches into the southern New Mexico heat low/monsoonal trough. As the parent 500 mb and sfc low continue to move east, flattening the 500 mb ridge east of Texas, the 500 mb ridge is beginning to build back. The ridge is expected to continue the hot weather. The only "relief" continues to be the isolated showers/thunderstorms along the sea breeze each day. The best chances for the rain is near VCT, with lower pops south along the Coastal Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Key Message: - Moderate to Extreme risk of heat related impacts this weekend into next week. The long-term weather pattern for South Texas will be dominated by a strong mid-level high centered over the Southern Plains, extending it`s influence across our region. This high will re-enforce a ridge across the western and central portions of the CONUS with a trough over the far western and eastern sections of the country. This blocking pattern will result in persistence and low rainfall chances (<15%) through much of next week over the region. Temperatures are the main story and are expected to remain above normal with afternoon highs topping out in the 90s east to around 105 degrees out west. Dewpoints in the mid- to upper 70s combined with hot temperatures will result in daily heat indices ranging around 110 - 114 degrees with some locales briefly touching 115 degrees or so. Due to these conditions, moderate to extreme heat- related impacts are expected so please remember to stay well hydrated, wear light colored, loose fitting clothes and stay in air- conditioning as much as possible. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Quiet weather persists through the TAF period with primarily MVFR conditions. Have added a brief tempo period of a VIS restriction at ALI toward morning as they seem to get there very easily. Otherwise, few to scattered clouds and a typical diurnal wind pattern with light winds in the overnight and morning hours becoming moderate in the afternoon into the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow is expected to continue through early next week. Generally dry conditions will persist through early next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 96 79 96 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 77 97 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 79 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 100 76 100 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 82 94 81 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 79 106 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 98 78 98 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 92 83 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....BF AVIATION...PH/83