452
FXUS64 KCRP 171128
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
628 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Key Messages:

-Heat Advisory in effect again today for the Coastal Bend and
Victoria Crossroads from 12PM to 7PM

We might be all sick of it at this point, but it will be hot once
again over South Texas today. With a 500mb high essentially progged
over the region, expect warm temperatures and plentiful moisture in
the region to yield heat indices between 110-114 degrees along the
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. There is a medium to high
chance this could be expanded further west into portions of the
Brush Country, though the decision was to hold off at this time due
uncertainties in the duration. This will be reassessed in the
upcoming forecast package. There is a low (<16%) for showers and
storms to develop with the arrival of the sea breeze this
afternoon in the Victoria Crossroads. The overnight period will be
reminiscent of previous nights with temperatures only "cooling"
slightly into the 70s with some spots along the coast holding in
the low 80s. Unfortunately, tomorrow`s story will feature more of
the same with hot and humid temperatures with the low potential
for showers and thunderstorms. Needless to say, make sure to take
precautions during any outdoor activities, stay hydrated, and make
sure to check the backseat of your vehicle before locking it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Key Messages:

- A moderate to major risk of heat related impacts across South
Texas through the upcoming week.

Summer time conditions will continue with hot and humid days and
muggy nights and generally rain free for most of South Texas.

Heat will continue to be the main concern through the end of next
week. There is a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts
across much of S TX each day, with some relief possible by Friday
with slightly lower temperatures. Highs will generally range from
low 90s along the immediate coastline to around 105-108 across the
Rio Grande Plains. These high temperatures combined with a humid
airmass will lead to heat indices ranging from 105 to 114 across S
TX. A few spots may briefly reach up to 116.  With a 40 to 70
percent chance of exceeding heat indices of 110, Heat Advisories
will likely be needed each day this upcoming week.

Rain chances will be very low (<15%) through Thursday. A mid level
ridge of high pressure will remain in control through most of the
week along with limited moisture. PWATs are progged to be around 1.5
inches Monday and Tuesday with pockets of 2 inch PWATS moving inland
the latter half of the week. Even with slightly deeper moisture, the
high pressure will continue to suppress convective development
Wed/Thu. By Friday, there is a slight chance (15-20%) across the
Victoria Crossroads as a surface to midlevel inverted trough
approaches the coast and enhances sea breeze convection. But still,
most locations will remain rain free.

Although this week looks to be dry, we are approaching the peak of
hurricane season. The time to prepare is now during the quiet
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Other than brief fog this morning bringing ALI down to IFR/LIFR
conditions, VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle.
The fog at ALI should dissipate early this morning as the sun
rises. Winds will increase a touch this afternoon to between
12-20 knots before decreasing once again tonight after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through next week with
a very low (less than 13%) chances of rain tomorrow across the
offshore Gulf waters. Generally dry conditions will continue
through next week across most of the Middle Texas Coastal Waters.
There is a low to medium (10- 30%) chance across mainly the
offshore waters by Friday. A weak to moderate south to
southeasterly flow can be expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  80  94  79 /   0  10  10   0
Victoria          98  77  99  76 /  20   0  10   0
Laredo           103  78 102  78 /   0   0  10   0
Alice            100  77  98  76 /  10   0  10   0
Rockport          95  82  95  81 /  10  10  10   0
Cotulla          105  78 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        98  79  97  77 /  10   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       92  83  92  82 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ234-241>247-
     342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...JCP/84