Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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564 FXUS64 KCRP 191737 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper trough extending from the Midwest back into Texas. MSAS analysis depicts a stalled cold front across the south-central part of the state. A cluster of showers and storms can be seen, currently east of Austin, moving south towards the coast. This activity is driven by a H5 shortwave rotating along the southern periphery of the trough. Some of the latest CAMs bring this activity into our northern counties early this morning while some suggest it breaks apart as the shortwave moves far enough east. If it does collapse we will need to be on the look out for additional development along any outflows this morning. Another batch of showers and storms are expected through the day as the boundary sinks further south. Although we won`t have much upper support, forecast soundings suggest convective temps will be met so diurnal heating will help us out today. Similar to yesterday, we will be fairly unstable but with little shear. Therefore, would expect any storms that develop to be fairly short-lived this afternoon. Any convection will wane with the loss of daytime heating this evening. We remain under the influence of the upper trough as we head into the weekend so we will see a similar story on Saturday with most activity being diurnally driven. High temperatures in the low 90s to near 100 degrees and heat indices generally in the 105-109 range will promote a moderate risk of heat-related impacts today and tomorrow. A few locations across the southern Coastal Bend may briefly reach 110 this afternoon but not for long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. To wrap this short term discussion up, I wanted to briefly touch on our rip current risk. Went ahead and continued with a low risk as winds will be light with swells generally around 5s. However, Gerling-Hanson plots suggest a secondary wave system with swells near 8s. If this were materialize, along with our proximity to our next Full Moon (7/21), we could see our rip risk nudged up to moderate. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate heat-related impacts Sunday will gradually improve to widespread minor through the middle of next week - A marginal risk (5-14% chance) of flash flooding Sunday and Monday, likely continue through the week Increasing moisture on Sunday will lead to a medium chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Victoria Crossroads and a low chance elsewhere. Coverage is not as significant Sunday compared to the rest of the long term due to lack of sufficient lift support. However, a steep mid to upper level trough will stretch from the Midwest into Texas early to the middle of next week, resulting in a weak frontal boundary dissipating just north of South Texas, mid- level shortwave disturbances aloft, and an inverted surface trough. This lift support throughout the atmosphere, combined with 90-99th percentile moisture (PWATs 2-2.5") and sufficient instability (1000- 1500 J/kg), will lead to medium to high chances (50-85%) of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday, with greatest chances and rainfall expected Wednesday into Thursday. NBM probabilities of precipitation greater than 2" from Tuesday through Thursday night is around 40% uniformly across South Texas. The mean of for the same time frame ranges from 1.5-2.0". Although the 3-hr flash flood guidance across the area currently ranges from 3.5-4.5", daily rainfall will likely lower these values and increase soil moisture, leading to greater runoff. Therefore, WPC has most of South Texas in a marginal risk of flash flooding Sunday, and all of South Texas on Monday. I expect the flash flood risk to continue if not worsen as we head into the middle of next week with the CPC indicating a slight risk of heavy rainfall heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Still watching the showers and thunderstorms near VCT, some of them may get into the TAF site, so will have TEMPO or VCTS for the next few hours until we lose the heat from the day. Overnight should remain VFR into Saturday morning. Otherwise, will continue the VCTS at ALI and CRP as showers and thunderstorms are moving south into the Brush Country and towards the Coastal Bend. May have to add VCTS to the COT and LRD. ALI may drop to MVFR VSBY around 12z/SAT, otherwise VFR for the rest of the night at the rest of the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Weak to occasionally moderate south to southeasterly flow will persist through the middle of next week. Winds may become variable at times through early this weekend as a boundary nears the region. Low to medium rain chances of 20 to 50 percent through weekend will increase to medium to high chances of 50 to 70 percent heading into the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 93 78 94 / 10 20 0 20 Victoria 74 92 75 93 / 20 30 0 50 Laredo 77 99 77 99 / 10 10 0 10 Alice 75 97 76 97 / 10 20 0 20 Rockport 78 88 81 93 / 20 20 0 30 Cotulla 76 100 77 99 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 76 95 76 95 / 10 20 0 20 Navy Corpus 79 88 81 91 / 20 20 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...JSL/86