337
FXUS64 KCRP 132041
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
341 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

- Minor to Moderate risk of heat related impacts Sunday.

It is looking like we are getting out of the showery/thunderstorm
pattern of the last few days. The moisture associated with the weak
500 mb trough is moving north, as the 500 mb ridges on either
side of the trough begin to rotate north to join up over North
Texas. The moisture moves north of the Hill Country overnight,
leaving the PWAT values to decrease over the next couple of days.
This morning`s PWAT values was 2.23" on the KCRP sounding, with
the GFS showing the values falling to 1.81" by Sunday morning, and
1.63 by Monday morning. So with precipitation done for a few
days, the next issue is the return of the heat. High temperatures,
with the building ridge look to support temperatures of 90 near
the coast to near 100 in the Rio Grande Plains. Considering that
we have lowering humidity (PWAT values) over the next few days, we
may approach 110F Heat Index values but not expecting to exceed
it Sunday. Sunday night looks quiet.

Haze may be an issue as the Saharan Dust Layer is expected to
increase over the next few days. So the visibility may be impacted.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Not much of a change from the previous Extended forecast package.
The area will remain under the influence of two centers of high
pressure at the mid-levels, one across the SE CONUS and another one
over the Four Corners region. Although a few weaknesses will be able
to swing in between, below normal moisture will maintain rain
chances at minimal through mid week (PoPs <20%).

The pattern aloft then starts to change toward the latter part of
the week when a trough over the Great Lakes region begins to extend
SW into the area. This will send an associated frontal boundary
across the state. Although uncertainty remains fairly high in
regards to this boundary, latest model runs indicate it is likely to
stall either just north of our area or midway across it sometime
Friday into Saturday period. Siding with the NBM for this forecast
package, have continued to bring low to medium rain and thunderstorm
chances (PoPs 20-40%) Friday into Saturday period as well above
normal moisture (PWATs >2.0") will be present.

In terms of the temperature forecast, these will gradually increase
throughout the week with 850mb temperatures warming to around 20-22
degrees Celsius during the afternoon hours each day. In general
though, highs will range from the low 90s along the coast to near
100 over the Brush Country, with overnight lows in the 70s. The risk
of heat related illnesses will be at minor to moderate levels
through most of the week, with some western locations increasing to
major toward the mid to latter part of the week. Heat Advisory
conditions may be met during this time over portions of the southern
Coastal Bend and northern Brush Country. But for now, stay tuned for
the latest updates!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

High pressure is rotating to the north, and pushing the showers
and isolated thunderstorms out of the region. The chances for rain
showers and thunderstorms (20-30%) should be out of South Texas by
02z/Sun. Winds are expected to diminish overnight, and there is a
50% chance for ALI to drop below 5SM in fog, and a 30% chance in
VCT, so have opted to put the MVFR VSBYs into those sites.
Otherwise, CRP, COT, and LRD are expected to VFR overnight, with a
20% chance for MVFR CIGs between 11z and 14z. VFR everywhere the
rest of the TAF period Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will remain in place during the
upcoming week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
today, then again the latter part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  93  77  93 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          75  92  75  94 /  10  20   0  10
Laredo            76  97  77  99 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             75  96  74  97 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          82  93  81  93 /   0  10   0   0
Cotulla           77  98  77 100 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        77  94  76  95 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       82  90  81  90 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...JSL