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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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890 FXUS64 KCRP 142343 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 643 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Have held off with key messages today as the heat risk over South Texas is mostly minor with small areas of moderate for Monday. A lot of this has to do with the lower humidly levels over the next couple of days. Temperatures under the upper ridge, that is re-asserting itself over the region, support a range from around 90 along the Coastal Bend to around 100F in the Rio Grande Plains. Because of that, the max heat index values will range from 100F to 110F with the highest along the Coastal Bend. Otherwise, the Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Gulf, and may move inland, where they are expected to remain isolated. With the lowering humidity and the diminishing focusing mechanism (upper level trough) convective activity will remain at a minimum. Latest Saharan Dust Layer models have backed off that amount of dust in the near term (next 24-36 hours) so there may be a bit of dusty haze, but it won`t be as noticeable as was once thought yesterday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Key Messages: - Generally a minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts for the upcoming week. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week and into next weekend. Minimal changes were required during the daytime package update of the Extended forecast. South Texas will remain in between two areas of high pressure at the mid-levels, one across the SE US and another one over the Four Corners/Desert SW region. As these ridges retreat (one to the east and the other one to the west) some weaknesses and impulses will be able to slide into the area. Provided moisture will be limited through mid week, rain/storm chances will continue to be low (<30%) through Wednesday, with the activity mostly induced by the seabreeze. By the latter part of the week a trough will be deepening across the Great Lakes region and will begin to stretch southward into the area. This will send an associated surface frontal boundary through the state Thursday into Friday period. Although confidence on this boundary making it this far south remains low, moisture will increase through the end of the work week and convection could be sparked along the front as it stalls just north of the area or in the vicinity of outflow boundaries from nearby storms. Low to medium rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, but generally stay below 50%. For the weekend, moisture remains elevated across the area, therefore, daily rain chances will persist. The combination of near normal temperatures and humid conditions will result in a minor to moderate HeatRisk through the week. A few locations may briefly experience major HeatRisk conditions over portions of the Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend around mid- week, but it is still to early to issue any Advisories. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions prevail across South Texas with the very few showers over the Brush Country diminishing as we head further into the evening hours. Patchy fog over the Coastal Plains from 09-13Z may impact ALI/VCT. Southeasterly winds diminish tonight, then increase tomorrow afternoon to sustained around 12 knots and gusts around 20 knots. Decreasing moisture will lessen rain chances to very low tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 As high pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico, expect isolated showers over the nearshore and off shore waters. Winds will remain weak to moderate, with onshore flow Tuesday afternoon, and south flow at tonight and Tuesday night. A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the week with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible daily mid to late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 94 79 94 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 76 94 76 93 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 77 98 77 98 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 75 98 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 80 93 82 93 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 77 100 77 100 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 76 95 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 91 83 90 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...EMF/94