986
FXUS64 KCRP 150445
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Have held off with key messages today as the heat risk over South
Texas is mostly minor with small areas of moderate for Monday. A lot
of this has to do with the lower humidly levels over the next couple
of days. Temperatures under the upper ridge, that is re-asserting
itself over the region, support a range from around 90 along the
Coastal Bend to around 100F in the Rio Grande Plains. Because of
that, the max heat index values will range from 100F to 110F with
the highest along the Coastal Bend.

Otherwise, the Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the Gulf, and may move inland, where they are expected to remain
isolated. With the lowering humidity and the diminishing focusing
mechanism (upper level trough) convective activity will remain at a
minimum.

Latest Saharan Dust Layer models have backed off that amount of dust
in the near term (next 24-36 hours) so there may be a bit of dusty
haze, but it won`t be as noticeable as was once thought yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Generally a minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts for the
  upcoming week.

- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the
  week and into next weekend.

Minimal changes were required during the daytime package update of
the Extended forecast. South Texas will remain in between two areas
of high pressure at the mid-levels, one across the SE US and another
one over the Four Corners/Desert SW region. As these ridges retreat
(one to the east and the other one to the west) some weaknesses and
impulses will be able to slide into the area. Provided moisture will
be limited through mid week, rain/storm chances will continue to be
low (<30%) through Wednesday, with the activity mostly induced by
the seabreeze.

By the latter part of the week a trough will be deepening across the
Great Lakes region and will begin to stretch southward into the
area. This will send an associated surface frontal boundary through
the state Thursday into Friday period. Although confidence on this
boundary making it this far south remains low, moisture will
increase through the end of the work week and convection could be
sparked along the front as it stalls just north of the area or in
the vicinity of outflow boundaries from nearby storms. Low to medium
rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, but generally
stay below 50%. For the weekend, moisture remains elevated across
the area, therefore, daily rain chances will persist.

The combination of near normal temperatures and humid conditions
will result in a minor to moderate HeatRisk through the week. A few
locations may briefly experience major HeatRisk conditions over
portions of the Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend around mid-
week, but it is still to early to issue any Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Not much change with this package. VFR conditions currently prevail
across South Texas. There is a low chance for patchy fog development
over the Coastal Plains and have reflected that potential over
ALI/VCT from 09-13Z. Brief MVFR ceilings may also develop along the
Rio Grande, related to the TEMPO at LRD. Otherwise, winds will be
light through the early morning hours, then increase to sustained
around 12 knots and gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon. Rain
chances are very low tomorrow (less than 10%) as atmospheric
moisture decreases.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

As high pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico, expect isolated
showers over the nearshore and off shore waters. Winds will remain
weak to moderate, with onshore flow Tuesday afternoon, and south
flow at tonight and Tuesday night. A weak to moderate onshore
flow will continue through the week with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible daily mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  94  79  94 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          77  94  76  93 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            77  98  77  98 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             74  98  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          80  93  82  93 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           77 100  77 100 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        76  95  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       80  91  83  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...EMF/94