Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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943 FXUS64 KCRP 040950 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 450 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Major heat related impacts are possible today - Hazy conditions possible tonight, due to increased moisture and fireworks. The mid-level ridge will remain in place today through Friday, keeping us hot and dry. We`ll still have high temperatures ranging from the 90s along the coast to near 105 over the Brush Country, with heat index values of 105-109 across most of the area. A few locations could see heat index values around 110, but this is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. Even so, please be careful as you spend time outdoors today celebrating the Fourth of July. Remember to drink plenty of water, take breaks out of the sun, and wear sunscreen. Much the same weather is expected on Friday, though the ridge will finally begin to push off to the east as a trough moves over the Plains. The only thing that may be slightly different from previous forecasts is that there is a low chance that the long period swell from Hurricane Beryl could begin to reach our waters late Friday. In an abundance of caution, we have a moderate risk of rip currents in effect for Friday. Beachgoers are urged to use extra caution, especially near piers and jetties where rip currents are possible. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Key Messages: - All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl. - Increasing rain chances the first half of next week with at least a 5% chance of flash flooding on Sunday through Monday night. - Hazardous coastal and marine conditions this Holiday weekend. Very little changes to the overall forecast for South Texas in regards to Beryl this morning. The hurricane has slowly begun to weaken through the night, now with maximum sustained winds at Category 3 levels (120 MPH), and still on a west-northwestward track towards the Yucatan Peninsula into early Friday. Beryl is forecast to further weaken today through Friday, but remain a hurricane until making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. The land interaction will cause additional weakening of this system and is expected to be a Tropical Storm when it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico early Saturday. From there on, some strengthening is forecast with Beryl becoming a hurricane again before making landfall along the western Gulf coast sometime Sunday night into Monday morning. At this time uncertainty in regards to the track and intensity of the system over the Gulf waters remains fairly high with the cone covering a wide area from just north of Tampico, MX to near Freeport, TX. Locally over South Texas, this currently involves increased rain chances, especially during the Sunday through Tuesday period with PoPs rising to near 60%. Latest QPF forecast calls for accumulations on the 1-5 inches range through mid week owing to plentiful moisture availability. With an added 5-15% potential for flash flooding, WPC has continued to highlight a Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area Sunday through Tuesday morning. Hazardous coastal and marine conditions are also expected with swells increasing significantly over the weekend. This will lead to a HIGH risk of rip currents and a greater potential for coastal flooding. Beachgoers should be extremely wary of these conditions over the Holiday weekend, and should stay up to date with the latest forecast updates as these conditions may become a serious life- threat. Temperatures will remain very warm through Saturday with highs from the low 90s to around 103. Mostly cloudy skies and increasing rain chances will limit high temperatures to the low 80s to mid 90s through the rest of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Persistent summer time conditions continues. VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the TAF period with very brief MVFR conditions for ALI and VCT early Thursday morning due to light patchy fog and lower cloud bases. Light S-SE winds overnight, becoming gusty with gusts around 20-25 knots Thursday afternoon into early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the end of the work week, with more moderate to strong flow developing Sunday into Monday period. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday through the middle of next week. There is high uncertainty on the wind and wave forecast as Hurricane Beryl moves into the Bay of Campeche, but increased wave heights and long period swells are expected this weekend and early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 78 96 77 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 96 77 95 75 / 10 0 10 10 Laredo 101 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 76 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 90 82 92 81 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 102 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 83 91 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS/77 LONG TERM....ANM/88 AVIATION...TE