171
FXUS64 KCRP 161923
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
223 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts tomorrow.

- Increasing chances of showers and storms across the eastern CWA
  beginning tomorrow.

South Texas remains under the influence of two high-pressure
systems during this forecast period, with a ridge over the Four
Corners region slowly propagating eastward into the Southern
Plains and another ridge over the central Gulf Coast. Drier air
will persist over the region this afternoon and tonight, with
PWATs ranging near normal between 1.7 to 1.9 inches. Consequently,
rain chances will remain low for the rest of this afternoon and
evening, though a few isolated showers along the sea breeze cannot
be ruled out.

Moisture will begin to increase overnight and into tomorrow, with
PWATs generally around 1.9 to 2.1 inches across eastern portions
of our area. Models indicate a deepening trough over the High
Plains and Upper Midwest, which will move southeastward tomorrow.
This upper-level feature, combined with the increased moisture,
will lead to higher chances of showers and storms (20-40%), mainly
across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains.

Temperatures should remain near normal tonight through tomorrow
night. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will range from the mid-70s
to the low 80s. High tomorrow will peak in the low-to-mid 90s
across the eastern CWA, with upper 90s to low 100s expected out
west. A few locations may briefly reach heat indices up to 110
degrees, but conditions will not be long-lasting or widespread
enough to warrant the issuance of a Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts for the week.

- Rain chances increase late this weekend into next week.

Not much change from the previous forecast package through the end
of this week. The upper-level ridge is expected to shift westward
allowing a mid-level trough to develop in its void with the trough
axis setting up over or just east of South Texas. As the trough sits
over the region, a series of shortwaves are expected to rotate
around the base of the trough and interact with our forecast 1.9-
2.2" PWAT values to promote low to medium chance for showers and
thunderstorms, mainly east of Highway 281. However by next week,
moisture is expected to climb just a touch into the 2.1-2.4" PWAT
range while a boundary moves through the region leading to medium to
high chances for rain across all of South Texas.

Near normal temperatures are expected to continue across South Texas
through early next week, thankfully in part to the increased cloud
cover expected. However, despite the near normal temperatures,
increased humidity across the region will still result in muggy
conditions with heat index values ranging from 105-109 degrees
through the weekend with a minor to moderate risk of heat-related
impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the majority of
this TAF cycle with very brief MVFR VSBYs possible tomorrow
morning, mainly in VCT for patchy fog. South-southeasterly winds
will range from 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots this
afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected with low to medium rain
chances through Saturday. As we head into next week, our rain
chances are expected to increase to medium to high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  94  78  95 /   0  20   0  10
Victoria          77  93  76  94 /   0  40   0  30
Laredo            78  99  77 100 /  10  10   0  10
Alice             77  96  75  98 /   0  20   0  10
Rockport          81  92  80  93 /   0  20   0  10
Cotulla           78 100  78 101 /   0  10   0  10
Kingsville        79  95  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  90  81  91 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...KRS/98