029
FXUS64 KCRP 172310
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
610 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Thursday

A weak cold front is expected push the mid to upper-level low
pressure out of the region into the Gulf tomorrow as moisture pools
up across South Texas with PWAT ranging from 1.8-2.2". This will
yield a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon through tomorrow night, mainly across the Victoria
Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for this time of the
year with a lower than normal heat index due to the increase cloud
cover. Despite a slightly lower than normal heat index, a minor to
moderate risk of heat-related illness will remain in play due to the
abundance of moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts for the week

- Rain chances increase late this weekend into next week

Good news! There is very little change to the inherited long term
forecast package. Models still indicate a more active pattern as the
upper level ridge moves west and a trough digs south. A "cold front"
will push into Texas, but will stall to our north. Moisture will
pool ahead of this boundary with PWATs increasing to around 2
inches. A series of shortwaves will move along the trough, resulting
in moderate (30-60%) chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
area through the middle of the week. At this point, I think most of
us agree that we will take any days with cloud cover, a chance for
some rain, and heat index values below 110.

So...even more good news! With the increased cloud cover and chances
for rain, highs will remain in the low 90s to around 100 degrees out
west. Heat index values will remain in the 105-109 range, with only
a moderate risk for heat-related impacts across the area. At this
time, Heat Advisories do not seem likely, though a few locations
could see heat index values touching 110 over the inland Coastal
Bend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail across most terminals tonight.
ALI/VCT may see MVFR VSBY`s as patchy fog could develop for a few
hours in the morning. Southeast winds this evening will be
somewhat variable and light overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Weak to occasionally moderate southerly flow will continue tonight
through tomorrow night. Rain chances increase tomorrow afternoon
with a low to medium chance for rain. Weak to moderate onshore
flow is expected with moderate rain chances through the middle of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  95  78  94 /   0  10  10  30
Victoria          77  94  76  92 /  10  30  30  60
Laredo            77 100  79  99 /  10  10  10  30
Alice             76  98  77  98 /  10  10  10  30
Rockport          80  90  79  93 /  10  10  20  30
Cotulla           78  99  77  98 /   0  10  10  30
Kingsville        77  97  77  96 /   0  10   0  20
Navy Corpus       81  90  80  91 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...BF/80