Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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476 FXUS64 KCRP 071116 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 616 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Key Messages: - All of South Texas interests should continue to monitor the progress of Beryl - Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week. - Hurricane Watch, Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect along the Middle Texas Coast We are continuing to watch Beryl as it makes its way towards the middle Texas Coast. The forecast remains on track and the storm is expected to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico as it enters a more favorable environment with less shear. The storm will continue its northwest to north-northwestern track today into Monday. The NHC is expecting this storm to be a category 1 hurricane with the mention that rapid intensification is possible close to landfall. Therefore, we cannot rule out the potential for further strengthening into a low end category 2 hurricane. Nonetheless, expected threats will remain the same for our area. For more information, see the latest hurricane local statement for specific landfall based impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Rain chances will continue to linger through the remainder of the week. Beryl will continue to track to the north out the area and a ridge currently over the southwestern US will move to the south and retrograde back to our area. Simultaneously, a couple of shortwaves are expected to ride the western periphery of the ridge along with an influx of tropical moisture. This is expected to allow for some showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday and Thursday. Expect more diurnally driven convection through the remainder of the period. With the influx of moisture into the region the threat for heat stress related impacts returns. Heat indices return to 105-110 by Tuesday and will remain that way through next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout the day as rain bands from TS Beryl move inland across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Beryl is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane late tonight as it moves northwest to north. Based on Beryl`s latest forecast track, the main impacts will be at CRP and VCT TAF sites with a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions. ALI is expected to be less impacted, but still some convection and gusty northeast to north winds by late afternoon or evening and continuing overnight. CRP`s winds are expected to increase late this afternoon with gusts 30-35 knots by the evening. VCT is expected to gust to 40-45 knots, possibly higher overnight. COT and LRD are expected to be rain free with VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Conditions will begin to deteriorate this morning from east to west in the area ahead of Tropical Storm Beryl. Winds will rapidly increase today into tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight into early Monday with wave heights up to 22-27 feet. Gradually improving conditions can be expected by mid- week. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday, with scattered thunderstorms lingering through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 79 95 78 / 50 50 60 30 Victoria 91 76 88 74 / 50 70 80 40 Laredo 101 80 102 80 / 10 10 20 10 Alice 96 78 98 76 / 30 30 50 20 Rockport 93 80 93 79 / 60 70 70 40 Cotulla 102 80 102 79 / 10 0 20 10 Kingsville 96 79 98 78 / 40 30 50 20 Navy Corpus 90 80 93 81 / 60 70 70 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ234-245>247-342>347-442-443-447. Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ232-233-242>244. Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for TXZ233- 234-245>247-346-347-447. Storm Surge Warning for TXZ245-343>347-443-447. Storm Surge Watch for TXZ342-442. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...TE/81