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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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242 FXUS64 KCRP 190505 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Thursday A weak cold front is expected push the mid to upper-level low pressure out of the region into the Gulf tomorrow as moisture pools up across South Texas with PWAT ranging from 1.8-2.2". This will yield a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night, mainly across the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for this time of the year with a lower than normal heat index due to the increase cloud cover. Despite a slightly lower than normal heat index, a minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness will remain in play due to the abundance of moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts for the week - Rain chances increase late this weekend into next week Good news! There is very little change to the inherited long term forecast package. Models still indicate a more active pattern as the upper level ridge moves west and a trough digs south. A "cold front" will push into Texas, but will stall to our north. Moisture will pool ahead of this boundary with PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. A series of shortwaves will move along the trough, resulting in moderate (30-60%) chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area through the middle of the week. At this point, I think most of us agree that we will take any days with cloud cover, a chance for some rain, and heat index values below 110. So...even more good news! With the increased cloud cover and chances for rain, highs will remain in the low 90s to around 100 degrees out west. Heat index values will remain in the 105-109 range, with only a moderate risk for heat-related impacts across the area. At this time, Heat Advisories do not seem likely, though a few locations could see heat index values touching 110 over the inland Coastal Bend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail across most terminals tonight. ALI/VCT may see MVFR VSBY`s as patchy fog could develop for a few hours in the morning. Southeast winds this evening will be somewhat variable and light overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Weak to occasionally moderate southerly flow will continue tonight through tomorrow night. Rain chances increase tomorrow afternoon with a low to medium chance for rain. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected with moderate rain chances through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 95 78 94 / 0 10 10 30 Victoria 77 94 76 92 / 10 30 30 60 Laredo 77 100 79 99 / 10 10 10 30 Alice 76 98 77 98 / 10 10 10 30 Rockport 80 90 79 93 / 10 10 20 30 Cotulla 78 99 77 98 / 0 10 10 30 Kingsville 77 97 77 96 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 81 90 80 91 / 0 10 10 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...BF/80