500
FXUS64 KCRP 112329
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
629 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Ample moisture (PWAT 2.23" KCRP 12z sounding) is still over the
forecast area, and looks to take its time moving out of the Coastal
Bend. An inverted trough, spurred off of the heat low in Mexico will
move north as the sfc high pushes back into South Texas by Friday
night. The PWAT values will begin to drop Friday and Friday night
will begin to fall slowly from above 2.2" to around 2" by Friday
night. So we will be in a wash, rinse, repeat, type of pattern until
the moisture drops back down to around 1.5".

So tonight, the sea breeze looks to be pushing inland, with the fine
line on the radar running from around Port Lavaca(KPVK) to Alice
(KALI), then south to around Falfurrias. Timing tool on AWIPS has it
getting to Laredo around 351z tonight. The expectation is for the
thunderstorms to weaken, and the be mainly showers by the time they
get to the Western Brush Country. Friday looks to be similar to
today as there will be some offshore thunder, and some will push
onshore. The main action will be in the afternoon as the sea breeze
moves into the region with the 2.0" PWAT moisture producing some
showers and thunderstorms again that will move to the west before
diminishing. Friday night, any rain that is still around will
continue to diminish and be out of the forecast area by 12z/Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat index values between 110-113 mid-week

A mid to upper level high pressure will begin to move back into the
region Sunday, with subsidence increasing Monday through next week.
This will yield to mainly dry conditions with near normal to
slightly above normal temperatures through the extended forecast.
Despite the influence of high pressure, there will still be a low
chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two each afternoon along the
seabreeze. But before the ridge begins to move into the region
Sunday, a shortwave will rotate around the western periphery of the
incoming ridge which will tap into the anticipated 2.1-2.2" PWAT to
promote a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms, with
the best chances being across the northern Coastal Plains and
Victoria Crossroads. Dangerous heat index values will return once
again around mid-week, with a 45-55% chance of heat indices
exceeding 110 degrees and 23-35% chance of exceeding 115 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated activity continues across the region this evening.
Reduced visibilities and gusty winds will be possible with any
storm for the next couple of hours as they gradually fizzle out.
VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the night, outside
of a brief period of MVFR cigs/vis at ALI/COT/LRD. Showers and
storms will move inland again Friday morning, mainly impacting
ALI/CRP/VCT. Additional activity is expected along the seabreeze
again during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Weak to moderate south to southeast flow will continue through
much of the week with a low to medium chance of showers and
thunderstorm Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions will kick in
Sunday and remain in the forecast through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  91  78  92 /  30  40  10  20
Victoria          74  89  74  92 /  30  60  10  50
Laredo            75  91  77  95 /  40  40  20  20
Alice             74  92  75  95 /  30  50  10  30
Rockport          79  92  80  93 /  40  40  20  30
Cotulla           76  91  76  95 /  40  40  20  30
Kingsville        75  92  77  93 /  30  40  10  20
Navy Corpus       80  89  82  90 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...TC/95