516
FXUS64 KCRP 121827
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
127 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Showers are beginning to develop this morning and will expect
additional development as we head through the morning hours as a
tropical wave passes south of the region and we remain under an
area of troughing between high pressure centers northwest and east
of South Texas. CAPE values along the coast this morning between
1k and 1.5k with 20-50 g/kg of moisture flux convergence. Would
expect to see thunderstorms developing eventually. The exact
evolution of the convection today is a bit unclear as temperatures
could stay low enough to not develop much of a sea breeze this
afternoon to bring any organization to the activity. Several
deterministic models keep high temperatures in the 80s across much
of our area. Have gone a bit above these, but below the NBM that
indicates temps in the lower to mid 90s.

Convection should wane this evening as tropical wave is west
along with the deepest of the associated moisture. On Saturday,
one final wave of moisture shifts north through the area and will
bring another chance for showers and storms. The greatest chance
on Saturday will be over the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts by mid-week.

On Sunday, mid/upper level high pressure takes over S TX, bringing
drier mid levels to the area. PWATs lower to around 1.5 inches
across the Rio Grande Plains to 1.9 inches across the Coastal Bend.
This is still sufficient moisture for isolated (<10%) afternoon sea
breeze convection, but most of S TX will be dry. This trend
continues through Tuesday. An upper long wave trough draped west of
the area is progged to shift slightly east by Wednesday leading to a
slight increase in moisture and rain chances, but chances are still
low (<20%).

Main concern for next week will be the heat. A gradual warming trend
will lead to highs in the lower 90s along the inland coastal areas
to around 100 across the Rio Grande Plains by Tuesday-Thursday.
Humid conditions combined with these higher temperatures will lead
to heat indices of 105 to 110 by Wednesday. Some locations across
the Coastal Bend and Brush Country could briefly see heat indices of
110-114. There is a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

An upper level trough will produce showers and thunderstorms,
mainly as the sea breeze begins to activate between 19 and 22z
this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are around the
Victoria Crossroads and in the Brush Country, and will become more
numerous as we approach the high temperature for the day. The
pattern will be similar to last night the showers and
thunderstorms will impact VCT, CRP, and ALI first, then COT and
LRD later. However, COT and LRD may have showers and thunderstorms
develop earlier as the upper level trough and moisture begin to
develop thunderstorms locally. Otherwise, overnight the shower and
thunderstorms should diminish, like the last few nights. MVFR CIGs
would be likely as the moisture pools in the lower part of the
atmosphere, but the winds stay up high enough to keep the fog at a
minimum. There is a 40% chance for MVFR VSBYs by 12z/Sat. VSBYs
and CIGs should improve in the morning becoming mainly VFR for the
day with more showers and thunderstorm potential by the late
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Mainly light south to southeasterly flow is expected today into
Saturday. There is also a medium chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially near the coast. A weak to moderate
onshore flow can be expected for the upcoming week along with
drier conditions. The chance for showers and thunderstorms is low
and confined to mainly the offshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  91  78  93 /  10  30   0   0
Victoria          75  90  75  93 /  30  50   0  20
Laredo            76  95  77  98 /  50  20  10   0
Alice             75  93  75  96 /  10  30   0   0
Rockport          79  91  82  93 /  30  30   0  10
Cotulla           75  93  77  98 /  30  20  10   0
Kingsville        77  92  76  95 /  20  30   0   0
Navy Corpus       80  90  82  91 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...JSL/86