883
FXUS64 KCRP 161122
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts Today and Wednesday.

- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Victoria
Crossroads Wednesday.

The general overall synoptic weather pattern looks similar to
yesterday with South Texas sandwiched between two mid/upper level
high pressure systems. Minor change is that the high pressure east
of the area has shifted slightly southward across northern Gulf of
Mexico, while the high west of the area has shifted eastward across
the Plains. Regardless, S TX remains under the weakness between
the two highs, that is draped from Mexico to the southeastern U.S.

The moisture across S TX will remain limited today with PWATs
generally around 1.5-1.8 inches. Thus, rain chances are low (<20%)
but can not rule out a rogue shower along the sea breeze this
afternoon. Also, may see a few streamer showers over the
coastal waters after midnight tonight.

Moisture is progged to increase tonight through Wednesday with PWATs
around 2 inches, mainly across the eastern CWA. Models indicate a
deepening trough digging southeastward from the northern plains, and
pushing farther south into TX on Wednesday. This feature combined
with an unstable airmass and the increased moisture will lead to a
better chance of convection. The chance will remain low (10-20%)
across the southern Coastal Bend, with a medium (30-40%)chance
across the Victoria Crossroads. The better chance of convection
across the Victoria Crossroads is due to closer proximity to the
approaching upper trough, and stronger low level moisture
convergence.

Highs will remain near seasonal norms, however, with humid
conditions the Heat Index is expected to range from 100-109 each
afternoon. A few locations may briefly reach a heat index of 110,
but not long enough nor widespread enough to warrant Heat Advisories
at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts for the week

- Low to moderate rain chances through early next week

Very little change with this long term forecast update. We start out
with upper level ridging retreating west as a trough begins to dig
south across the Midwest. A cold front will be sent south across the
state during the late stages of the work week. This boundary will
likely stall just to our north and linger through the weekend.
However, moisture will pool ahead of the boundary which will promote
a 30-50% chance of showers and storms through early next week. Our
greatest chances will come Friday and Saturday, generally east of
Highway 281, as a H5 shortwave rotates through on the southern
periphery of the trough. By early next week, rain chances look to
spread west as an inverted trough develops along the Middle Texas
coast.

Increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep highs generally in
the low 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat indices from the 105-109
range will lead to a moderate risk for heat-related impacts through
the long term. A few spots may briefly reach 100, generally across
the Coastal Bend, each afternoon. However, it will likely not be for
a long enough time to warrant a Heat Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period
with very brief MVFR conditions this morning, mainly ALI and VCT.
Brief MVFR conditions will be possible once again at the tail end
of the TAF period, but will not include at this time due to the
very low (<10%) chance of occurring. Light southerly winds this
morning will increase to 10-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots
this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue today through
Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
Wednesday. Weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow will
continue into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible daily with the best chances
expected over the weekend and into early week. Coverage may become
more scattered in nature by Monday as an inverted trough takes
shape.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  80  94  78 /  10   0  20   0
Victoria          94  76  92  75 /  10   0  40   0
Laredo            98  78  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
Alice             96  76  97  75 /  10   0  20   0
Rockport          93  81  92  80 /  10  10  20   0
Cotulla          100  77 100  77 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        95  78  95  77 /  10   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       90  82  90  81 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...TE/81