Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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821 FXUS61 KCLE 110504 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Beryl will lift across northeast Ohio this afternoon, dragging a cold front across the region this evening. A trough will cross Lake Erie tonight into Thursday morning before high pressure finally builds in Thursday afternoon. Another trough will cross the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 12:30 AM Update... Updated to higher PoPs over NE Ohio and NW PA overnight where wraparound moisture, a surface trough, and some lake instability are generating widespread light rain and drizzle. New forecast package will be out by 4 AM. 9:50 PM EDT Update... Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. However, based on those trends, updated our surface wind and gust forecast through about midday tomorrow to better reflect the E`ward progression of the cold front in our CWA and surface ridge building behind the front. Please see discussion below for additional info. 8:08 PM EDT Update... Most of the forecast remains valid. However, updated POP`s and QPF through early tomorrow afternoon given latest trends in obs and model guidance. Aloft, a shortwave trough lifts NE`ward from the central and eastern Great Lakes to QC and vicinity through early tomorrow afternoon as a ridge builds from the Mid MS Valley region. At the surface, Beryl`s remnant low moves from the eastern Great Lakes toward the Canada/northern New England border. This will allow the trailing cold to drift E`ward, away from near the I-77 corridor early this evening, and exit the rest of our CWA by about daybreak tomorrow morning. Behind the front, a congealing ridge builds from northern ON and the Mid MS Valley. Scattered showers associated with Beryl`s warm conveyor belt undergoing most isentropic ascent aloft and releasing weak potential instability will exit our CWA generally from west to east through about the wee hours of Thursday morning. In addition, a sufficiently cold/moist atmospheric column and the seeder-feeder process over/downwind of ~23C Lake Erie will allow steadier lake-enhanced rain showers to impact areas generally southeast of Lake Erie, amidst NW`erly mean low-level flow behind the cold front. However, these lake-enhanced showers are expected to end early Thursday morning as considerable drying aloft causes the seeder-feeder process to end. However, upslope flow-forced showers, enhanced by added moisture from Lake Erie, are expected to continue generally southeast of Lake Erie, in/near the snowbelt, before ending by around midday Thursday as drier low-level air enters from the west, as does stabilizing subsidence accompanying the aforementioned ridge. Previous Discussion... As of 3 pm, our severe weather threat has end across NW PA as winds have veered southwest as well as all of northern Ohio this afternoon. The center of the low pressure system and remnant of Beryl is currently over the central basin of Lake Erie this afternoon. This system will continue to track northeast overnight. Scattered rain showers on the backside of this exiting system will continue through the evening into the overnight with a gradual decrease in POPs from west to east late tonight and early Thursday morning. Gusty winds from the southwest will be up to 40 mph possible through early evening. Winds will become northwesterly late this evening and overnight with gusts up to 25 mph possible. A few lingering showers will be possible across NW PA early Thursday morning. Clouds will be decreasing from west to east during the morning Thursday. Weak high pressure will build in on Thursday along with clearing skies. Temperatures will be cooler in the middle 70s over NW PA and NE OH to the lower 80s over NWOH. High pressure and clear skies Thursday night will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the short term period as multiple short wave troughs move through the region. On Friday, a weak surface ridge will push over the area allowing for primarily dry conditions throughout the day. There is a non-zero chance of light showers with an isolated thunderstorm sneaking into the far NW OH counties during the afternoon hours as an upper level shortwave progresses northeast across the western Great Lakes region. By Friday night, a less diurnally favorable environment coupled with the departing shortwave should leave the area with primarily dry conditions through Saturday. The best chance for widespread precipitation will arrive Saturday night as moisture increases across the area with a warm front beginning to push north across the area. This moisture will be enhanced by another shortwave and isolated thunder is possible, but given the diurnally unfavorable environment. High temperatures on Friday will climb into the low to mid 80s before increasing into the mid to upper 80s for Saturday`s high. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with Friday night temperatures falling into the low to mid 60s, but only dipping into the mid to upper 60s Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Much of the long term forecast will be dominated by a warm pattern courtesy of a surface high pressure allowing for strong WAA to become established. Although hot, the long term period may mark another period of unsettled weather as a parent low over Ontario meanders to the east, moving multiple shortwaves across the Great Lakes region. With dewpoints expected to increase into the upper 60s to low 70s, increased instability in the afternoons will likely lead to multiple rounds of convection across the area through the period. On Tuesday, models suggest an associated cold front approaches from the north before stalling near the lakeshore of Lake Erie then progressing south on Wednesday. There is quite a bit of model divergence in handling this system, so opted to blanket it with 20- 30% PoPs through much of the period. Sunday through Tuesday will be days to keep an eye on the forecast and monitor for severe weather, which will be better discerned in upcoming forecasts. High temperatures through the period will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices expected to be in the 90s. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. The next potential cool off will come on Wednesday, but is highly dependent on the progression of the aforementioned low pressure and associated fronts. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Aloft, W`erly to SW`erly flow resides over our region as a disturbance lifts NE`ward from the eastern Great Lakes region and vicinity through 00Z/Fri, a ridge builds from the Mid MS Valley region, and a separate disturbance approaches from the Upper MS Valley. At the surface, Beryl`s remnant low moves from the eastern Great Lakes toward the Canada/northern New England border through 00Z/Fri. The trailing cold front continues sweeping E`ward away from the I-77 corridor in NE OH and should exit the rest of our region by ~10Z/Thurs. Behind the front, a congealing ridge builds from northern ON and the Mid MS Valley. Regional surface winds around 10 to 15 knots veer from SW`erly to W`erly with the passage of the cold front. Farther behind the front, winds veer to NW`erly and ease gradually to around 5 to 10 knots as the aforementioned ridge builds and is accompanied by a relaxing MSLP gradient. Our regional surface winds will gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times through early Thurs afternoon, especially east of KTOL and KFDY. Outlook...Isolated showers/thunderstorms with non-VFR possible during the afternoon through early evening hours of Friday. Periodic showers/thunderstorms with non-VFR also possible this Saturday night through Monday. && .MARINE... As the remnants of Beryl continue to move northeast through the region, winds have begun to gradually shift to the northwest and increase. Strongest winds observed currently are over the western basin where sustained winds are 15-25 knots with waves still less than 1 foot, but expected to climb to 3-4 feet over the next couple hours. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually spread east across Lake Erie this evening, with sustained winds of 15-25 knots, waves 3-6 feet, and rip currents all likely. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the western basin until Thursday morning and for the remaining basins through Thursday evening. A Beach Hazards Statement has also been issued for Bay View OH to Vermilion for tonight and then Vermilion to Ripley NY from tonight through Thursday evening. By Thursday evening, high pressure will push east across the area, allowing for winds to weaken to 5-10 knots and waves to diminish to 2 feet or less. These fairly calm marine conditions will persist through Tuesday with the wind becoming sustained from the southwest on Sunday through Tuesday at 10-15 knots. Although there is quite a bit of divergence in model agreement on handling the next system, a cold front may stall somewhere near the lake on Tuesday before progressing south on Wednesday. With a warm and moist airmass in place, expect afternoon thunderstorms with locally gusty winds, especially on Monday and Tuesday. Aside from the next 24-36 hours, no additional marine headlines are anticipated at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ009. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ010>012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Griffin/Jaszka SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Campbell