316
FXUS61 KCLE 201947
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead will gradually weaken through Sunday with
southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday. A cold
front will track southeast across the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. High pressure builds back in by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains overhead, gradually dissipating tonight
and tomorrow. A weak pressure gradient will favor the
development of an afternoon lake breeze on Sunday afternoon
despite a limited lake-land temperature difference, which is
about 5-10 degrees depending on the location. A weak upper-level
low centered over Iowa gradually shifts east to northern
Illinois by Sunday night. Within southwest flow aloft ahead of
this, a couple models are showing a subtle shortwave trough
moving overhead Sunday night. The latest HRRR/RAP has some rain
showers in our southwest counties. However, many other models
have nothing, suggesting that there is uncertainty in
timing/location of precipitation (it could be more on Monday
and/or farther to the southeast) so for now, only introduced a
small 20% PoP area to our southeast counties to account for some
of this uncertainty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will gradually increase during this period as troughing
aloft over the eastern part of the continent slowly phases together
the northern and southern jet streams. Over the forecast area the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase from slight
chance of Monday mainly south of US Route 30 to chance over most
locations away from Lake Erie on Tuesday. High temperatures of 80 to
85 can be expected with low temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The chance for showers and storms will increase Wednesday and
Thursday as the upper level trough and attendant surface cold front
cross the region. PW values rise to 1.5" and with the slow approach
of the cold front, several rounds of convection with moderate to
heavy rainfall are possible.

Less humid air will overspread the region in the wake of the cold
front Thursday night through Saturday as high pressure builds across
the region with seasonable temperatures near the surface and at 850
mb.

High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s with lows in the 60s
with some upper 50s in inland northwest PA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR is observed areawide and expected to continue through the
TAF period as high pressure remains overhead. Scattered
afternoon cumulus will continue through this afternoon and
redevelop again Sunday afternoon. Light northwest today and
north winds tomorrow of less than 5 knots expected. A weak lake
breeze has developed this afternoon and will again tomorrow
afternoon, mostly impacting KCLE/KERI but could briefly make
inland progress to KCAK and KYNG during the late afternoon
hours.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
The surface pressure gradient will remain weak through the period so
no headlines are expected with generally light winds. An onshore
lake breeze will be active each afternoon from Sunday into
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...LaPlante
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...LaPlante