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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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175 FXUS61 KCLE 171802 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 202 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front drifts southeastward across the area today. Behind the front, high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region by Thursday, lingering overhead through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 2:00 PM EDT Update... Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. A surface cold front, augmented by convective outflow extends from near Youngstown to near Columbus and continues to move SE`ward. This front is expected to exit the rest of our CWA by this late afternoon. Filtered sunshine/daytime heating have led to weak to moderate destabilization of the warm/moist sector boundary layer. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will accompany the surface portion of the front and roughly 925-850 mb portion of the front, along which moist isentropic ascent will continue to release weak to moderate and elevated instability. Given the projected evolution of the front at the surface and aloft, these showers/storms are expected to exit our area by this early evening. Made minor adjustments to POP/QPF/sensible WX grids through this early evening to account for latest trends in obs and model guidance. Please see discussion below for further details. Previous Discussion... Isolated to scattered rain showers are observed on radar, a few moving into the I-75 corridor and then more around the Greater Cleveland area. The showers in the Cleveland area have developed along the outflow boundary of a storm that died over Lake Erie. The true cold front looks to be located across lower Michigan and just on the other side of Lake Erie. Should continue to see isolated to scattered coverage of showers across the area through much of the morning. It`s possible there is an isolated thunderstorm but it`s unlikely. An uptick in coverage is expected early this afternoon, with scattered showers and storms, especially east of I-71. The cold front should cross the region by 00Z this evening with a cooler airmass advecting in. The main upper-level trough builds in with northwest flow advecting in cold air aloft, cold enough for very minor lake-induced light rain showers and mostly cloudy skies downwind of Lake Erie mainly in Northeast Ohio late tonight and during the day Thursday. The colder airmass will result in highs down into the low to mid 70s (about 6-12 degrees below normal). && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A refreshing period of mid-summer weather is in store with high pressure on the backside of an eastern Canada/New England trough in control of this portion of the forecast. Expect mainly clear/sunny skies with no rain chances and light winds. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s in PA to the upper 70s to near 80 on Friday, warming into the low to mid 80s Saturday. Overnight lows will be on the cool side of average, especially Thursday and Friday nights when most areas away from the lake and the denser urban area near Cleveland will get into the 50s. Can`t rule out a few rural locations in northeast OH and northwest PA threatening the upper 40s, especially Friday night. Lows begin trending slightly milder Saturday night but still will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Went a bit cooler than blended model guidance for lows away from the lake and east of ~I-71 Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Troughing over eastern Canada and New England will slowly lift out this period as a modest trough digs over the central U.S., resulting in gradual moisture return. Still expecting dry weather through Sunday night. Monday will be mainly dry but clouds will likely begin increasing, with a few afternoon showers or storms not ruled out especially across our western and southern counties. By later Monday night and Tuesday more solid chance POPs (30-50%) begin returning to the forecast. While there aren`t any big systems to key on, the global models and ensembles generally suggest we`ll get into a relatively unsettled south-southwest flow with gradually increasing moisture and occasional small shortwaves moving through. This should lead to at least occasional potential for scattered showers and storms returning to the forecast by Tuesday, though the pattern doesn`t look too concerning for a severe wx or heavy rain concern at this distance. Highs will generally be in the low-mid 80s with lows in the 60s for this period with gradually increasing humidity. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... A cold front extends from roughly KYNG to KCMH. The front continues moving southeastward and is expected to exit our region by 20Z/Wed. A ridge builds behind the front and from the north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected along and near the front, especially across the southern-half of our region. Conditions continue to vary between VFR and MVFR, with brief windows of IFR possible in moderate to heavy rainfall. Showers/thunderstorms are expected to end from northwest to southeast through this early evening. Regional surface winds are expected to veer from westerly to northwesterly through the TAF period and range from around 5 to 10 knots. A brief/slight increase in wind speeds is possible as the cold front passes. Low/mid-level ceilings are expected to scatter-out from northwest to southeast through this early evening. However, scattered to broken lake-effect clouds with bases near 3kft AGL are expected over and generally southeast of Lake Erie late this evening through the mid-morning hours of Thursday. Lake-effect clouds may produce very light rain. Outlook...VFR expected Thursday afternoon through Monday. && .MARINE... A cold front is crossing the lake early this morning and will bring winds around to a north-northwesterly direction into the day today. A secondary trough axis will cross the lake from west to east this evening, shifting winds to a more northerly direction. A third and final trough looks to swing across the lake Thursday afternoon, shifting winds to a north-northeast direction. Winds will mainly be in the 5 to 15 knot range through Thursday evening, though a brief push to near or slightly greater than 15 knots is likely behind the trough passage this evening into tonight and perhaps again late Thursday afternoon. Waves will generally range from 1 to 3 feet with the modest onshore flow through Thursday evening, though if we do see a couple of periods of winds slightly greater than 15 knots we could see some brief 2-4 footers close to the southern shoreline between the Islands and Conneaut, OH. Overall we look to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria though conditions may be rough enough to make recreational boating less than pleasant and generate a moderate risk for rip currents along the Ohio shoreline east of the Islands. Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected later Thursday night through early next week with high pressure in control through the weekend and then no major systems in store early next week. In terms of convective hazards, the risk for thunderstorms over the lake is minimal for the next several days with low potential potentially returning by Monday or more likely Tuesday next week. It will become marginally unstable over the lake late tonight through Thursday morning as cooler than average air moves over the warm mid- July waters. The amount and depth of instability appears marginal for waterspouts, and while we can see them without a land breeze in these shorter fetch set-ups, the lack of a land breeze is another strike against the potential. Ultimately, refrained from a forecast or HWO mention as confidence is low given the very marginal setup. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Saunders SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...Leonard MARINE...Sullivan