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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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332 FXUS61 KCLE 181333 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 931 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in for the end of the week, lingering into the weekend with primarily dry weather in control. Cooler through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 9:31 AM EDT Update... Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. Lake-effect stratocumuli continue to stream generally S`ward from ~24C Lake Erie amidst an unusually-cold and sufficiently- moist low-level air mass. These lake-effect clouds are expected to scatter-out and transition into cumuli late this morning through early evening as the boundary layer over surrounding land destabilizes via daytime heating, which in turn will cause the lake to no longer be the primary source of warmth, moisture, and instability. Please see discussion below for further details. Previous Discussion... Post cold frontal environment for the area as cool high pressure builds in for the end of the week. Dewpoints are already showing drops into northwest OH at this hour where TOL/FDY are in the lower 50s. Low level/surface northwest flow could generate some low level cloud cover off Lake Erie for far NE OH and NW PA today while most other locations are mainly clear. There could also be some cloud cover from the trailing 500mb axis coming through around 18-20Z today. Have to mention in here that an isolated shower is possible, but not going to add it to the grids. Temps in the 70s through Friday. Lower 50s away from the lakeshore Thursday night with near 60F along the lakeshore. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level confluence behind a departing longwave trough over eastern Canada and New England and resulting surface high pressure will be in control of our weather this weekend. Southwesterly flow aloft will begin developing ahead of a digging trough over the Plains, but aside from some passing higher clouds is not expected to do much to break up what looks like a stellar weather weekend. Highs should return to the low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. Many away from the Lake Erie shoreline will dip well into the 50s Friday night, and could still see a few upper 40s in outlying portions of northeast OH/northwest PA assuming any passing high clouds aren`t too thick. Lows trend a bit warmer Saturday night but still range from mid 50s in parts of northeast OH/northwest PA to the low 60s elsewhere. Lows tick up a bit more into the 60s for Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A trough will dig into the central U.S. through Tuesday and begin lifting east-northeast towards the lower Ohio Valley and western Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, weak low pressure is expected to begin slowly lifting out of the lower Mississippi Valley Monday, passing through the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday and approaching the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. A warm front is expected to lift across the local area Tuesday night into Wednesday east of this weak low pressure. More substantial moisture return will begin Monday into Tuesday amid deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough to our west. We can`t rule out a stray airmass shower or storm on Monday towards northwest or central OH if moisture return is quick enough, though for most of the area carry a dry forecast for Monday. Daytime heating of an increasingly moist airmass should combine with modest forcing for ascent ahead of the trough and a bit of warm air advection and isentropic lift ahead of the warm front to yield scattered shower and storm chances on Tuesday, reflected by 30-40% POPs. Greater rain potential is evident Wednesday into Thursday as the trough drifts towards and into the southern Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley. Given pretty good ensemble agreement on the overall set- up went with the likely POPs (60%) given by blended guidance for Wednesday. Not too concerned about a robust severe weather threat on Tuesday or Wednesday given what appear to be poor mid-level lapse rates limiting the amount of instability along with weak flow aloft limiting the amount of shear. Increasing atmospheric moisture and weak flow may encourage slow-moving downpours, though for most of the area any rain we can get will be more much beneficial than harmful. Highs in the 80s and lows gradually warming through the 60s with some humidity are expected the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Quiet aviation with mainly VFR expected. Two changes from the previous forecast are adding some gusts this afternoon 14-18kts in northerly winds, and also threw in SCT030 with a weak push of low level moisture off Lake Erie later in the forecast from this cooler airmass, but think it will stay SCT and now go into a ceiling of BKN030. This would occur after 00Z Friday. Outlook...VFR expected Thursday afternoon through Monday. && .MARINE... Getting a brief push of northerly winds to around or slightly greater than 15 knots as a trough axis drops south across the lake early this morning. We should see winds back off to more of an 8 to 13 knot range by later this morning before another trough drops through late this afternoon into this evening. This will bring winds up to around 15 knots out of the north-northeast again for a few hours, especially over the central basin. Winds will slacken tonight into Friday as high pressure builds in and become generally light and variable this weekend into early next week. The modest north- northeast flow will bring 1-3 footers in the nearshore waters through most of tonight. The brief periods of enhanced flow both this morning and again this evening will briefly push waves between the Islands and Conneaut, OH to the 2-4 foot range. The forecast remains a bit below Small Craft Advisory criteria so continue to hold off on any headlines, but it won`t be pleasant for recreational small craft on the lake through this evening. On land the forecast waves are also a bit shy of prompting a high risk of rip currents, but the risk will likely get into the "moderate" category at times this morning through this evening between Erie County and Lake County in OH, so will add that mention to the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms are not expected over the lake for the next several days, with the next potential towards Tuesday of next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26 SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...26 MARINE...Sullivan