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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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305 FXUS61 KCLE 210122 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 922 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure overhead will gradually weaken through Sunday with southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday. A cold front will track southeast across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds back in by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 930 PM Update... The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed with this update. Dry weather will high clouds will continue through tonight. Previous Discussion... High pressure remains overhead, gradually dissipating tonight and tomorrow. A weak pressure gradient will favor the development of an afternoon lake breeze on Sunday afternoon despite a limited lake-land temperature difference, which is about 5-10 degrees depending on the location. A weak upper-level low centered over Iowa gradually shifts east to northern Illinois by Sunday night. Within southwest flow aloft ahead of this, a couple models are showing a subtle shortwave trough moving overhead Sunday night. The latest HRRR/RAP has some rain showers in our southwest counties. However, many other models have nothing, suggesting that there is uncertainty in timing/location of precipitation (it could be more on Monday and/or farther to the southeast) so for now, only introduced a small 20% PoP area to our southeast counties to account for some of this uncertainty. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Moisture will gradually increase during this period as troughing aloft over the eastern part of the continent slowly phases together the northern and southern jet streams. Over the forecast area the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase from slight chance of Monday mainly south of US Route 30 to chance over most locations away from Lake Erie on Tuesday. High temperatures of 80 to 85 can be expected with low temperatures in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The chance for showers and storms will increase Wednesday and Thursday as the upper level trough and attendant surface cold front cross the region. PW values rise to 1.5" and with the slow approach of the cold front, several rounds of convection with moderate to heavy rainfall are possible. Less humid air will overspread the region in the wake of the cold front Thursday night through Saturday as high pressure builds across the region with seasonable temperatures near the surface and at 850 mb. High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s with lows in the 60s with some upper 50s in inland northwest PA. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR expected with high clouds tonight, but scattered cumulus at around 5000 ft AGL will likely develop during peak heating Sunday afternoon. North winds 5 to 10 knots this evening will become light and variable overnight. A lake breeze will impact KERI/KCLE Sunday afternoon, allowing winds to shift to the north. Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... The surface pressure gradient will remain weak through the period so no headlines are expected with generally light winds. An onshore lake breeze will be active each afternoon from Sunday into Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Maines/Saunders SHORT TERM...LaPlante LONG TERM...LaPlante AVIATION...Maines MARINE...LaPlante