316
FXUS61 KCLE 051724
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
124 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the East Coast will continue to influence the
local area today. A cold front will settle southeast across the area
Sunday night into Monday followed by high pressure building in for
Tuesday. An active weather pattern will return for the second
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridge builds overhead today with the heat
continuing to expand across the area. Most locations will
experience mostly sunny skies with high temperatures forecast to
reach the upper 80s in NW Pennsylvania to low 90s in NW Ohio.
Heat index values will be in the mid 90s at times in portions of
NW and North Central Ohio. Surface high pressure is located
along the East Coast and generally light wind conditions will
allow for a lake breeze to develop across NE Ohio and NW
Pennsylvania. This will keep temperatures just a couple degrees
cooler and convergence along this boundary may serve to kick off
a few showers and/or thunderstorms this afternoon. ML CAPE
values look to be in the 350-500 J/kg range. Although coverage
of showers varies on the CAMs, this can be explained by a wide
range in model dewpoints, ranging from the low 70s on the 3km
NAM to near 60 on the HRRR which is basically dry. Forecast
dewpoints are in the mid 60s and have an area with 20-40 percent
pops focused east of Cleveland into NW Pennsylvania and perhaps
as far south as Warren, mainly between 2-6 PM. Isolated to
scattered showers with a few thunderstorms are expected in this
area.

Hot conditions continue on Sunday, with more locations seeing heat
index values creeping into the mid and upper 90s. A little more of a
breeze will be felt as an elongated trough of weak low pressure
moves into the Central Great Lakes, reaching NW Ohio late in
the day. This will be accompanied by increasing instability from
west to east and returning chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Chances will generally be focused west of I-71
late in the day on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave driving the above mentioned trough will weaken to our
north on Sunday night and models have slowed down the eastward
progression of the front. Muggy conditions expected Sunday night
with some moisture pooling along this boundary. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to expand in coverage through the day on
Monday as the next shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes Region
and pushes this cold front east across the area. The degree of cloud
cover may limit instability along the front to some extent on Monday
with only modest CAPE values expected. With that said, thunderstorms
are expected and may produce locally heavy rain and also a low end
threat of a few strong to severe thunderstorms with bulk shear
values of 25-30 knots, especially in the east. PW values are
around 2 inches and will need to monitor storms for training and
the potential for localized flooding.

The front will tend to be south of the area on Tuesday and most
areas will be dry. Some residual instability may linger in the south
with dewpoints still in the upper 60s so will hold onto an isolated
pop in the southern counties. Overall temperatures will be more
comfortable with highs dropping back into the 80s and a general
decrease in humidity with high pressure building in from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern returns for the long term forecast with
a broad trough setting up over eastern Canada and an active storm
track somewhere in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley. There is
uncertainty in timing and location of showers and thunderstorms this
far out but each afternoon with at least have a chance for now.
Summer-like heat and humidity are expected to continue until we
can push this boundary farther to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Aloft, W`erly to WNW`erly flow backs gradually toward SW`erly
through 18Z/Sun as a ridge exits slowly E`ward and a trough
approaches from the northern and central Great Plains. At the
surface, the ridge continues to exit slowly SE`ward. Our
regional surface winds trend S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 15
knots through 18Z/Sun. Isolated and periodic gusts up to 20
knots are expected after 15Z/Sun. Note: a WSW`erly to WNW`erly
lake breeze along/within several miles of Lake Erie from roughly
the longitude of KBKL and points east is expected to dissipate
around 00Z/Sun. However, after ~15Z/Sun, another lake breeze
should develop in the same general area and cause winds to veer
toward W`erly.

Mainly VFR and fair weather are expected through the TAF period.
However, a few showers and thunderstorms should develop along
the lake breeze front after ~19Z/Sat and impact inland portions
of far-NE OH and NW PA. Brief MVFR to IFR and brief/erratic
surface wind gusts up to 40 knots should accompany showers and
especially storms. Showers/storms should dissipate by 01Z/Sun
as the boundary layer begins to stabilize via nocturnal cooling.
Note: The scattered cloud layer based at 5kft AGL in the TAF for
each terminal, except KERI, represents expected diurnal
cumuliform clouds through ~00Z/Sun and again after ~14Z/Sun.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday through this Wednesday, mainly
during the afternoon and early evening hours of each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of 3 feet or less and wind speeds of 5 to 15 knots are
expected on Lake Erie through this Thursday. A high pressure
ridge exits slowly SE`ward from the Lake Erie region through
Sunday. A lake breeze along and near the lakeshore from roughly
downtown Cleveland through Erie County, PA will dissipate early
this evening. Otherwise, S`erly to SW`erly winds are expected
through Sunday. SW`erly winds should veer gradually to N`erly
Sunday night through Monday night as a cold front drifts SE`ward
across the lake. On Tuesday through Thursday, winds should
trend variable in direction as a ridge attempts to build from
the James Bay area and the aforementioned front wavers in a
north-south manner between the Upper and Mid OH Valley and Lake
Erie in response to weak lows that should move generally E`ward
along the front. Winds should trend onshore during the late
morning through early evening hours of Tuesday through Thursday,
respectively, due to lake breeze development.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014-
     020>022-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka