Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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688 FXUS61 KCLE 080000 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 800 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist across the region through Monday, followed by a weak cold front on Tuesday. The remnants of Beryl will approach the area by Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 6:30 PM Update... Made very slight adjustments with this forecast update. Increased the cloud cover for tomorrow afternoon just a bit as model guidance is coming in with a bit more 850mb moisture for an afternoon cumulus field. Also made the lake breeze a little more defined in the forecast, following the latest HRRR heavily. Previous Discussion... A quiet and seasonable near term period is in store across the region as high pressure persists. For the rest of today, a lake breeze that developed earlier this afternoon continues to progress further inland as a weak MSLP gradient remains in place. For tonight, diurnal cloud cover is expected to diminish as temperatures fall into the 60s under mostly clear skies. Slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 are expected for Monday as the high slowly drifts eastward. A lake breeze will develop once again by late morning and early afternoon, though is not anticipated to progress as far inland as the one today. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Cyclonic SW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our region through this period as a positively-tilted longwave trough lingers over/near the western Great Lakes and central Great Plains, and the core of a longwave ridge persists over Atlantic waters offshore the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic portions of the U.S. At the surface, our CWA is expected to reside along the western flank of the Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge on Tuesday. A weak synoptic MSLP gradient accompanying the ridge and sufficient daytime heating of land surrounding ~73F Lake Erie are expected to permit lake breeze development over and within several miles of the lake during the late morning through early evening. Late afternoon highs are forecast to reach the 80F to 85F range over/within several miles of Lake Erie and the 85F to 90F range elsewhere. Isolated showers/thunderstorms with periods of heavy rainfall are possible on Tuesday as the warm conveyor belt of Beryl`s remnant low undergoes isentropic ascent over our area, taps into abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and releases weak to moderate elevated CAPE. In addition, the Lake Erie lake breeze front should contribute to isolated shower/thunderstorm development during the afternoon through early evening as the mesoscale front encounters a warm/moist sector boundary layer that is forecast to undergo weak to moderate destabilization via daytime heating as deep layer bulk shear remains moderate to strong. As a result, a few severe thunderstorms with damaging convective gusts amidst steep low-level lapse rates and sizable DCAPE are possible in the afternoon through early evening. A weak cold front is still expected to sweep SE`ward through our region Tuesday night as a prominent shortwave trough advances from near the Ozarks toward the southwestern Great Lakes and the attendant remnant surface low of Beryl moves generally NE`ward from near the Mid MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley, along the front. The aforementioned warm conveyor belt is expected to begin to bifurcate and promote frontogenetical convergence aloft, over/near our CWA, while continuing to undergo low-level isentropic ascent aloft while tapping into greater moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Accordingly, PWAT values are forecast to surge to near 2.0" (i.e. record-high values). The aforementioned forcing for ascent is expected to release weak to moderate and primarily elevated CAPE and trigger scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms with periods of torrential rainfall. Localized flash flooding is possible. Despite continued moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to end by midnight as the boundary layer stabilizes slightly via nocturnal cooling, which will likely cause showers/storms to become elevated. Plus severe hail will continue to not be a concern due, in part to weak mid-level lapse rates. Overnight lows should reach the mid 60`s to lower 70`s around daybreak Wednesday. The prominent shortwave trough mentioned in the paragraph above is expected to shift NE`ward toward Lake Huron on Wednesday through Wednesday night as the attendant remnant low of Beryl moves NE`ward from the Lower OH Valley toward Lake Erie. This should allow the surface front to shift back N`ward as a warm front in our CWA and near Lake Erie on Wednesday. During Wednesday night, the trailing cold front should begin to sweep E`ward into our CWA and near the I- 71 corridor by daybreak. Peeks of sunshine/intervals of daytime heating and net low-level WAA should allow highs to reach mainly the upper 70`s to mid 80`s Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows should reach mainly the mid 60`s to near 70F around daybreak Thursday. Scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms with periods of torrential rainfall are expected due to very moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and low-level convergence/attendant ascent along the warm front, surface trough axes in the warm/moist sector, and the cold front interacting with weak to moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE. Flash flooding remains possible. Severe thunderstorms, including supercells, with scattered damaging convective wind gusts and several tornadoes are possible, especially Wednesday afternoon through early evening, amidst low-level winds veering/strengthening significantly with height and mixed layer LCL`s easily below 1.5k meters AGL. However, the severe thunderstorm potential is highly contingent on the degree of daytime heating/resulting destabilization of the warm/moist sector boundary layer, the development of steep low-level lapse rates/sizable DCAPE, the development of a surface-based effective inflow layer with large SRH, and the ultimate track of Beryl`s remnant low. Changes to the forecast are likely with future updates. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Beryl`s remnant and nearly vertically-stacked low should track NE`ward from Lake Erie to southern QC and then the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday through Friday night as cyclonic SW`erly flow aloft veers to W`erly over our region. The cold front trailing the remnant low should sweep E`ward across the rest of our CWA on Thursday and be followed by weak ridging building from the west through Friday night. Scattered showers/thunderstorms should occur along the cold front as it encounters sufficient instability in the warm/moist sector. Odds favor fair weather Thursday night through Friday night as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Plus, a stabilizing Lake Erie lake breeze is expected to develop over and within several miles of the lake late Friday morning through early evening. Daytime highs should reach the mid 70`s to lower 80`s on Thursday and mainly the lower to mid 80`s on Friday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the 60`s around daybreak Friday and Saturday, respectively. The aforementioned surface ridge should exit slowly E`ward this weekend as cyclonic W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances continue to impact our area. A daily lake breeze is expected to develop on Saturday and Sunday, although Sunday`s lake breeze may be confined to Lake Erie and locations within several miles of the shore from northeastern Cuyahoga County through Erie County, PA since the synoptic MSLP gradient is progged to be SE`erly to S`erly that day. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop along the lake breeze front and surface trough axes attendant to the shortwave troughs as the lifting mechanisms interact with sufficient moisture and instability. Afternoon highs should reach the 80`s to lower 90`s this Saturday and Sunday as daytime heating is complemented by WAA along the western flank of the low-level ridge. Overnight lows should reach the 60`s to lower 70`s around daybreak Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... VFR is expected through the TAF period. Patchy fog possible for inland Northwest Pennsylvania but unlikely elsewhere. Afternoon cumulus clouds possible once again on Monday, though perhaps slightly less coverage than earlier this afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected overnight, becoming southwest late Monday morning/early afternoon. A lake breeze is expected to develop at CLE/ERI again on Monday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Non-VFR becoming more likely in widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl on Wednesday. Lingering non-VFR is possible on Thursday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds are expected to remain around 5 to 15 knots and permit waves to remain 3 feet or less through this Friday. Variable winds are expected through Monday as a ridge persists over/near the eastern Great Lakes. These variable winds will trend onshore during the late morning through early evening hours of Monday, when lake breeze development is expected. E`erly to SE`erly winds develop Monday evening and then veer to S`erly to SW`erly overnight due to the NE`ward passage of a warm front. Winds are expected to become variable again on Tuesday as ridge noses from the southeast, behind the warm front, and another lake breeze develops during the late morning through early evening. A weak cold front is still expected to sweep SE`ward over Lake Erie Tuesday night. The cold front passage should cause winds to become NW`erly and then veer quickly to NE`erly as a ridge attempts to build from northern ON while Beryl`s remnant low moves NE`ward along the aforementioned front, from the Mid MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley. Variable winds are expected on Lake Erie on Wednesday through Wednesday night as the aforementioned front wavers in vicinity of Lake Erie and Beryl`s remnant low moves from the Lower OH Valley to Lake Erie along the front, and the trailing front begins to sweep E`ward across western portions of Lake Erie by Wednesday night. Winds should remain variable on the lake during Thursday through Friday as Beryl`s remnant low moves farther NE`ward toward southern QC and is followed by a ridge building from the west. Please see our other marine forecast products for details regarding forecast wind directions. Note: Another lake breeze is expected to develop late Friday morning through early evening. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn/Saunders SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Jaszka