109
FXUS61 KCLE 060611
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
211 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east through the area tonight. High
pressure will then build across the region by Saturday night and
persist into early next week. Another cold front will move east
across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few showers are crossing Lake Erie with scattered showers
across NW Pennsylvania over the last couple hours. Made minor
adjustments to pops to reflect trends but showers are still
expected to end overnight as deeper moisture exits to the east.

Previous Discussion...
Main concern for the near term period will be over the next
several hours as cloud/rain debris from an upstream, remnant
convective complex exits east of the region, allowing potential
redevelopment of mainly showers with some embedded thunder just
ahead of an approaching cold front. Recent day cloud phase
distinction satellite imagery has revealed slightly more robust
glaciating cloud tops just west of the I-75 corridor. However,
the widespread cloud debris has kept the mid- levels fairly
capped which will limit the overall storm intensity, regardless
of the more impressive mid and upper-level dynamics at play.
Anticipate any remaining convective activity to subside
following sunset as surface- based CAPE diminishes.

The cold front will eventually move east through the area later
this evening and overnight, with a subsequent surface trough
expected to linger across the Lower Great Lakes region on
Saturday. This trough could kick off some additional isolated
shower/thunderstorm chances in the afternoon hours, particularly
across far NE OH and NW PA, though moisture will be much more
limited. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average on
Saturday, with highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather for Sunday and Monday as high pressure begins overhead
and drifts to the east. An upper trough and associated cold front
begins moving out of the central U.S. and into the Great Lakes
Monday night, with modest lift and moisture return ahead of the
trough allowing low POPs for showers to begin encroaching from the
west. Most of the area should remain rain-free all of Monday night
but some activity may push into Northwest Ohio late. Highs on Sunday
will surge well into the 80s, with highs on Monday near 90 or into
the low 90s as 850mb temperatures surge to around +20C. Heat index
values in the low to mid 90s are possible Monday afternoon.
Overnight lows will dip well into the 60s Sunday night but will
struggle to cool below the upper 60s/lower 70s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A trough is expected to work west to east across the Great Lakes
Tuesday into Tuesday evening, pushing a weak cold front into the
local area. Have POPs increasing to 40-60% Tuesday into Tuesday
evening as a result. The airmass looks to become rather sultry once
again, though poor mid-level lapse rates, the strongest forcing
passing to our north, and potential for rather extensive cloud cover
makes coverage of convection and any heavy rain/severe weather
potential highly uncertain. Models have actually lost some agreement
on the exact timing of the front and amount/placement of QPF, so
POPs for Tuesday and Tuesday evening have been lowered a bit from
the prior cycle. While the front should shift to our south Tuesday
night into Wednesday we will be beneath somewhat active flow aloft
between ridging off the East Coast and troughing stretching form the
upper Midwest to southeastern Canada. This type of pattern often
yields intermittent chances for isolated to scattered
showers/storms, so didn`t carry a completely dry forecast for
Wednesday or Thursday. However, the POPs are low and suspect those
days will feature much more dry time than not with overall light QPF
amounts. Deep-layer flow turns more south-southwesterly into Friday
and will attempt to draw moisture (including some remnant moisture
from Beryl) towards the region. Given this, have chance POPs
returning to the forecast beginning Friday afternoon. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above average for the extended. Humidity
will be noticeable on Tuesday and perhaps Friday, though dew points
shouldn`t be too bad for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Scattered showers that have been ongoing in the vicinity of ERI
will exit to the east through approximately 08Z. Otherwise
conditions are generally VFR at the start of the period. High
dewpoints and boundary layer moisture remain ahead of a cold
front that extends from Central Lower Michigan towards Chicago.
The higher dewpoints may result in patchy MVFR visibilities
overnight, especially at CAK/YNG. Included some periods of MVFR
at those eastern terminals and will monitor trends at MFD. Could
also see some stratus form prior to sunrise. As cold advection
arrives in NW Ohio this morning, could see some MVFR ceilings
develop with daytime heating. The potential for MVFR is better
towards TOL with ceilings likely developing a little higher with
a later arrival time farther east as moisture wraps in behind
the front within this cyclonic flow regime.

Clouds will tend to scatter out through the afternoon. Southwest
winds gusting to around 20 knots are possible at most sites
through 22-23Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Variable winds on the lake due to a lake breeze this afternoon will
shift southerly this evening and then west-southwest late tonight
into Saturday behind a cold front. Speeds will increase to around 15
knots late tonight into Saturday. Waves will build to 2 to 4 feet
nearshore and 3 to 5 feet over the open waters of the central basin
on Saturday. Waves in the nearshore waters currently do not
necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for late tonight into Saturday
though the rougher conditions will certainly be noticeable. Tranquil
marine conditions are expected to return Saturday night and persist
through much of next week. There is a low risk for a thunderstorm
over the lake ahead of a cold front this evening. Otherwise, a few
thunderstorms may be possible over the lake Tuesday into Tuesday
night with the next cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...KEC/Kahn/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sullivan