897
FXUS62 KCHS 091712
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
112 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will remain over inland areas this week while
high pressure persists over the western Atlantic.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid level ridge remains across the Southeast today in between a
trough to the west and weakening low over the Atlantic that will
track westward towards the coast. A trough of low pressure will
reside at the surface. 12z KCHS RAOB showed a PWAT of 2.38
inches which is close to the daily max for this date. Should
see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop this
afternoon with some upper forcing and deep moisture in place.
Severe weather threat is low, but locally heavy rainfall is
possible. Rainfall totals of 1-2" are the most likely with
isolated totals greater than 3".

Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s over the
much of the area today. This combined with a surge of slightly
higher dewpoints off of the Atlantic (ahead of the surface
trough) equates to heat index values around 108. A heat
advisory is in effect today from 11 AM to 8 PM. It is worth
noting that temperatures have been a bit slower to rise due to
lingering cloud cover, so it looks to be a bit more marginal
than previously expected. Tonight, expect low temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s with winds quickly falling off as the PBL
decouples.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mid-level ridge across the western Atlantic will continue to
extend west into the local forecast area on Wednesday. Weak
upper vort maxima may rotate through the area, particularly
across southeast GA during the afternoon. The sea breeze should
spur scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day, with
the greatest coverage potentially drifting inland during the
afternoon. High temps expected to reach 91-94 degrees while
dewpoints remain in the upper 70s. The current forecast shows an
area of peak heat indices of 108-111 across southern SC, so we
may need another Heat Advisory on Wednesday.

A weak cold front is expected to push into the area from the
west on Thursday, spreading some drier air across southeast GA.
The best moisture and convergence is expected to be across
southern SC where we show the highest PoPs.

Friday will feature an increase in upper shortwave energy. A
weak surface low is forecast to develop across southeast GA,
with the greatest moisture and forcing over southern SC. Fairly
good coverage of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated,
especially in SC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will gradually build over the eastern United
States Saturday through Tuesday. A relatively typical summertime
coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected.
Temperatures will steadily increase during the period, with
highs in the upper 90s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR is expected through 18z Wednesday. Flight
restrictions will be possible if any showers/thunderstorms
directly impact the terminals this afternoon or early evening.
Precip coverage will diminish overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms may produce brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds of 10 kt will persist through tonight. Seas
will be 2 to 3 ft. Showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible near a surface trough.

Wednesday through Sunday: Southerly flow will persist through
the period. Conditions will remain below advisory criteria with
wind speeds largely in the 10-15 knot range and seas 2-3 feet.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ETM/JRL
MARINE...Haines/JRL