Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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008 FXUS62 KCHS 092332 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 732 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will move over the area Wednesday night into Thursday, retreating back inland as weak low pressure develops over the Deep South Thursday into Friday. Bermuda high pressure becomes reestablished with troughing inland this weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Updated all products to expire the Heat Advisory for all remaining zones. Convection over Dorchester and Charleston Counties is slowly concentrating over Colleton County where low-level convergence is being enhanced near the collision of a southwestward propagating outflow boundary and the inland moving sea breeze. This activity could eventually center over Hampton and Beaufort Counties before instability starts to wane a bit. Farther south, additional convection is percolating northward towards Savannah within a warm/humid airmass. Still think chance pops look okay in this area. The risk for locally heavy rainfall, minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas and cloud-to- ground lightning remain the primary hazards. Near term pops were adjusted slightly to reflect current trends. Rain chances will decrease through the night with any activity becoming more focused over the coastal waters and near the coast. Low temperatures stay mild in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wednesday is shaping up to be similar to Tuesday, with near-Heat Advisory warmth and isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly focused in the afternoon. Ridging aloft and very weak lapse rates will once again limit coverage and intensity of storms, but some localized downpours and a few stronger storms can`t be ruled out. Dew points could mix out into the lower to mid 70s across inland SE GA Wednesday afternoon, with heat index values likely maxing out around 105, but dew points still in the mid 70s to near 80 closer to the coast will again allow heat index values to reach near the 108F Heat Advisory threshold. ahead of and along the resultant sea breeze front. A weak cold front is expected to push into the area from the west very late Wednesday night into Thursday, working drier air in from the west and limiting POPs across inland southeast GA. However, sufficient low level moisture persists along and east of I-95, with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms prevailing, especially along the Low Country coast, later Thursday through Thursday night as the moisture intersects an H5 vort max retrograding back toward the coast. Other severe threat looks low during this time, but the heavy rainfall potential requires further monitoring as some training of storms is possible into eastern SC Thursday night. The focus for greater moisture content Friday remains over the Low Country as weak low pressure remains over the deep south. Expect the overall precip story to follow a more diurnal trend, with scattered to widespread showers and storms developing along and inland of the sea breeze in the afternoon. Continue to monitor forecast updates for more on the severe threat, which will be dependent on morning cloud and shower coverage, with the heavy rainfall potential mainly east of I-95 requiring monitoring as well as the band of greater deep moisture could remain near the coast through Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A mid-level ridge will gradually build over the eastern United States Saturday through Tuesday. A relatively typical summertime coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected with Bermuda high pressure setting up offshore and general troughing prevailing inland. Temperatures will steadily increase during the period, with highs in the upper 90s by early next week. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 09/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Convection should be south of both KCHS and KJZI by 00z. For KSAV, showers/tstms may be in the vicinity through mid-evening before it too wanes. May need to include VCTS for KSAV pending last minute radar trends at issuance time. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through 10/00z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms may produce brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Tonight: South winds early will become more west to southwest overnight. Speeds will be less than 15 knots with seas 2-3 feet. Wednesday through Sunday: Moderate S to SW flow prevails Wednesday before the gradient weakens Thursday as a weak front approaches the waters. Bermuda high re-establishes itself Friday into the weekend, with summer-like moderate S to SW flow prevailing and gusty conditions in the afternoon (into evening) nearshore as the sea breeze develops. Weak SE medium period swell and minimal local windswell will combine to keep seas 2-3 ft through the period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$