Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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185 FXUS62 KCHS 101418 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1018 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will meander across the area through Saturday. Atlantic high pressure will then rebuild while a surface trough exists inland. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front will approach from the west today. Aloft, ridging will persist across the Southeast. Temperatures will warm quickly this morning, with many areas expected to reach 90 degrees by noon. Temperatures should peak generally in the mid 90s during the mid afternoon. The cold front is expected to push across the inland counties during the early afternoon hours, nearing the I-95 corridor by late afternoon. Dewpoints in the wake of the cold front should fall into the low 70s to upper 60s this afternoon. However, east of the front, dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 70s. The highest dewpoints should occur across portions of Charleston and Berkeley Counties, resulting in heat index values in excess of 108 for a few hours this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Charleston and Berkeley Counties until 8 PM this evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage looks fairly limited today with the forecast featuring mainly slight chance to chance PoPs, with highest coverage near the coastal counties this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected. Tonight, the cold front is expected to slide over most of the forecast area. Cooler dewpoints should advance across most of SE GA/SC, with values in the 60s east of I-95. Min temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will drift just off the GA coast Thursday, ushering in a considerably drier airmass, albeit briefly. Aloft, a relatively weak ridge will persist. Later in the afternoon, a weak surface wave over south coastal SC will enhance a moist onshore flow into the Charleston Tri-County Area. The only chance for convection appears to be over the far eastern zones and mainly after 2 pm when moisture increases. Temps will be relatively toasty in the mid 90s, but significantly lower dewpoints should prevent the need for any Heat Advisories. A weak surface low over eastern GA will drift northwest on Friday, taking with it a weak surface front draped across eastern SC. Moisture will return to the area with PWATs in most locations back above 2" by midday Friday. Some vorticity may break off the upper low in northern Florida and lift north through the area Thursday night and Friday. The sea breeze should be fairly strong on Friday, pushing well inland during the afternoon. Scattered convection expected pretty much everywhere, though better coverage may exist across inland SC where the sea breeze interacts with the stalled front. Saturday could be fairly wet as the remnants of the upper low over Florida lift north into the area. Deep tropical moisture will stream in from the southeast, pushing PWATs above 2.3". We will also have the stalled front across the area and a robust afternoon sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak upper trough will exist over the eastern United States Saturday night through Monday, then a broad upper ridge will gradually push east. Convective coverage could be slightly greater than typical summertime, especially through Monday. Temps will gradually climb, with heat indices getting close to 108 by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lingering MVFR ceilings at KSAV will return to VFR by late morning. A cold front will approach from the west late this afternoon and evening. It appears that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold front. Based on the expected environment, the greatest potential for convection should occur closer to KSAV compared to KCHS and KJZI. However, confidence is too low to mention SHRA/TSRA in the KSAV TAF at this time. Winds are forecast to remain from the WSW through the daylight hours today. Winds are timed to veer from the NW by 8Z tonight. Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms may produce brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Today: The sfc pattern will support southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts. Seas will favor values around 3 ft, with 2 ft see common within 10 km of shore. Thursday through Monday, no advisories expected. Winds Thursday morning may be NW across nearshore waters, then shifting to SW by afternoon. For the remainder of the period, winds will generally be southerly at or below 15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ045-050-052. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...ETM SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...JRL/NED MARINE...JRL/NED