592
FXUS62 KCHS 111755
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
155 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will extend across the area into early next
week. A surface front may sag into the area during the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon: Aloft the region will be under the influence of
ridging across the western Atlantic while high pressure
dominates at the surface. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a moist and
unstable environment across the region, especially across
southeast GA where ML CAPE values are around 2000 J/kg and PWAT
values are pushing 2 inches. CAMs highlight southeast GA as the
highlight of this afternoon, with numerous showers and
thunderstorms possible. Coverage will likely be significantly
less than yesterday, given the absence of large scale forcing
aloft. Storms today will likely initiate off of the inland
pushing sea breeze and any other outflow boundaries. While a
severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, the main threat for
this afternoon will be heavy rainfall and flooding. Several
locations across the region have seen 4 to 6 inches of rain over
the last two days and the ground is quite wet. The HREF
highlights southeastern GA with a 50% probability of 1" or more
and a 10% probability of 3" or more. Flooding of low lying and
poor drainage areas is possible, especially over areas that
have seen a lot of recent rainfall.

Overnight: Any precipitation will diminish in the early
overnight hours, with low temperatures dropping into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak upper-lvl ridge will slowly build across the Gulf Coast this
weekend into early next week. Simultaneously, a broad ridge will
remain off the East Coast as rich moisture continues to advect into
the region with PWAT values ~2.0 inches through early next week.
This will be more than enough moisture to spark up some showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Expect
temperatures to be in the low to mid 90s on Saturday, with mid to
upper 90s on Sunday and Monday. Heat index values be in the 100 to
the 106 degree range, specifically on Sunday and Monday. As of right
now, these values remain under Heat Advisory Criteria (108F),
however we will continue to be monitor these values over the next
couple days. With these temperatures and dewpoints in the the low to
mid 70s, moderate instability should develop and it`s possible to
see strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon. Overnight lows
will remain mild and only dip into the low to mid 70s (with warmer
temperatures closer to the beaches).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This current pattern will be slow to change as this weak upper-lvl
ridge eventually begins to break down in the middle part of next
week. Recent guidance suggests a weak surface trough, or front,
could settle across the region with storm activity gradually
increasing by the end of the week. Temperatures will remain near
normal for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The 18Z TAF period will initialize with VFR at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV,
with a TEMPO included at KCHS for some lingering MVFR cigs over
the next couple of hours. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast
this afternoon, with the greatest chance of impacts at KSAV
where a TEMPO is included from 21Z to 00Z. Otherwise direct
impacts are uncertain so VCTS has been maintained at KCHS/KJZI.
VFR will then prevail through the overnight period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the
period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within
showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: High pressure will dominate across the marine
waters, yielding southerly winds generally 10 to 15 knots. Some
gusts along the direct coastline could approach 20 knots this
afternoon in association with the afternoon sea breeze.
Overnight winds will remain elevated as high pressure builds
into the region, with winds around 15 knots with gusts to around
20 knots. Seas will average 2-4 ft through tonight.

Saturday through Tuesday: Expect generally south-southwesterly winds
at 5 to 10 kt to prevail throughout the period. It could become a
bit gusty each afternoon with gusts up to 15 to 20 kt as the
seabreeze pushes inland (gusts strongest across the immediate
coastline and the Charleston Harbor). Southeasterly swell will
continue to mix into the local waters over the weekend. Seas will be
2 to 3 ft, then decrease to 1 to 2 ft on Monday. Otherwise, no
marine concerns expected.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...Dennis
LONG TERM...Dennis
AVIATION...CPM/Dennis
MARINE...CPM/Dennis