Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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081 FXUS62 KCHS 050229 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1029 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A hot and humid air mass will build over the region late week into the weekend. A weak cold front could approach the region later this weekend and stall over the area through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Quiet weather prevails across the area late this evening. A weak disturbance aloft is bringing increasing mid to upper level clouds across the Piedmont and inner Coastal Plain, which could eventually abate cooling some and delay decoupling, but overall sensible weather impacts from this feature are minimal. Temps have dipped into the lower to mid 80s for most, on the to mid to upper 70s away from the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mid-level ridge across the Southeast U.S. will remain in place through the period. The pattern features little distinct surface features; however, generally speaking there is high pressure offshore and trough of low pressure inland. Friday will still feel the influence of the ridge aloft, with a mid-level temperature inversion keeping convection limited especially along the coast. Therefore, the forecast for Friday reflects chance POPs (20-35%) far inland where some deeper moisture begins to creep in. The weekend should be a bit more convectively active. A weak front will approach the region on Saturday but will stay west of the local area. However, as mid-level moisture advection ramps up, we anticipate coverage to follow suite. There could be convection initiation along the sea breeze, but it appears development will trigger via llvl convergence near the inland surface trough/stationary front and then move into the local area from the west. A similar set-up is expected Sunday with the surface front providing focus for convection. High temps will reach the mid to upper 90s Friday away from the coast. Saturday temps will peak in the low to mid 90s, but it will feel even hotter with heat indices approaching the local Heat Advisory criteria of 108 degrees in spots. Some locations could require an Excessive Heat Advisory Saturday. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures will remain mild, in the mid to upper 70s, both Friday and Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging aloft will prevail through the middle of next week with a broad trough to the northwest and a weakening upper low nearing the Southeast US coast. A stationary front looks to remain in the vicinity of the forecast area, setting up across the Midlands. In addition to the sea breeze, the front will provide the focus for convection With plenty of deep moisture in place. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, with coverage peaking in the afternoon and evenings. Temperatures are forecast to stay slightly above normal, in the low to mid 90s through next week, with lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging off the coast continues to dominate tonight and tomorrow, with mainly dry conditions and an overall weak gradient with VFR conditions prevailing. As the case in recent years, following this evening`s pyrotechnic displays, smoke or haze may result in brief periods of visibility restrictions at the terminals after dark. Forecast soundings indicate that a BL inversion may form as early as 2-3Z with light and variable winds. Future TAF issuances may include some degree of visibility restrictions associated with firework smoke. Otherwise, mainly only scattered passing cirrus overnight. Though radiational cooling will be efficient, any light/shallow fog is expected to remain inland mainly across SE GA, not impacting the TAF terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evenings, this weekend through the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: Ridging off the coast will keep a generally weak gradient in place, though some thermally-induced coastal jetting will likely keep S winds moderate through at least the overnight hours before the subside early Friday morning. Seas remain mainly 2-3 ft in mainly medium period combo trade/Beryl swell and modest local windswell. Friday through Tuesday: Southerly flow will persist through early next week. Marine conditions will stay solidly below small craft advisory criteria with speeds 15 knots or less and seas averaging 2- 3 feet. Rip Currents: A swell of 2 feet every 10 seconds and proximity to the new moon will maintain an enhanced risk of rip currents on Friday. A Moderate risk is forecast at all area beaches. An enhanced risk of rip currents could continue through the weekend. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEB/NED SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...BRM/CEB MARINE...BRM/CEB/NED