405
FXUS62 KCHS 070542
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
142 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will remain stalled near the area through much of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon/ evening have
continued to rapidly decay early this morning as they approach
the drier air to the east. Warm and humid conditions will
persist this morning with lows ranging from the mid 70s well
inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon with high temperatures in the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid-level ridge present over the forecast area on Sunday will
slowly begin to weaken into Tuesday with shortwaves rippling
across the southeastern states. At the surface a weak front will
linger in the vicinity. The weakening ridge aloft will yield
temperatures in the low 90s through the short term period. With
dew points in the low to mid 70s heat indices will likely only
reach up to 103, shy of Heat Advisory criteria. With the
lingering front in the vicinity significant moisture will be
available, with PWATs upwards of 2.3- 2.4 inches, which would be
close to the maximum PWAT according to SPC Climatology.
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon, with the threat of heavy rainfall as
PWATs remain elevated. The best coverage for precipitation will
be across SE GA, closer to the stalled front and higher PWAT
values.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The ridging aloft will continue to weaken through the end of
the week, with additional shortwaves rippling across the
southeastern states. Deep moisture will remain in place, with
PWATs well above 2 inches. Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon, mostly driven by a
robust afternoon sea breeze. The current forecast has high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s through the week, resulting
in heat index values between 100 and 106. Heat Advisories later
in the week cannot be ruled out, however at this juncture the
forecast keeps conditions below the 108 criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This morning: Showers and thunderstorms from Saturday evening
have continued to rapidly decay as they approach KSAV this
morning. This is thanks to stubborn mid-level dry air over KSAV
to KCHS/ KJZI (observed on the ALPW product). Expect winds to be
mostly light and out of the south this morning with VFR cloud
cover.

Today: The mid-level dry slot that was noted above will begin
to be pushed south which should allow for better coverage of
thunderstorms at the TAF sites this afternoon. Highest
confidence of observing a thunderstorm will be at KSAV which
will firmly be in the moist/ high PWAT air (2.4"). Confidence is
lower at KCHS and KJZI. For now, have introduced thunder at
KSAV and left the mention out at the Charleston terminals. This
might have to be included in future TAF packages.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the
evening hours once again and slowly come to an end by early
Monday morning. Mostly VFR conditions are forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible
in showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon
and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Southerly winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft will prevail.

Sunday through Thursday: Generally tranquil conditions expected
across the local marine waters through the period. Winds will
average 15 knots or less with seas 2 to 3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Haines
MARINE...