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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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970 FXUS62 KCHS 171518 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1118 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist offshore, while a weak trough resides inland today. A cold front will approach the region late week and likely stall nearby, before high pressure returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Thin line of beefier convection has developed in the outer waters of South Carolina over the last few hours along a pronounced low level convergence axis (SPC mesoanalysis) across that region. Convection is progressing eastward away from the coast. Meanwhile, broader SW/W mid level flow will dominate across the region through tonight along the southern periphery of a strong short- wave trough digging into the Great Lakes region. Some semblance of a sharpening surface boundary will align along the eastern side of the Appalachians through today resulting in increased southwesterly flow across the coastal Carolinas and coastal Georgia. Very warm and humid conditions persist with PWAT values in excess of 2 inches per recent satellite total precip water product. 12Z CHS sounding showed nearly 1500 J/Kg MLCAPE...capped for the time being of course. But with heating, conditions will become increasing unstable with MLCAPE values climbing to 2-3 J/Kg at peak heating, highest along the coastal corridor where low level moisture values will again run highest. Showers and thunderstorms will again develop across the region, likely initially along the sea breeze as it sharpens before progressing inland and interacting with any additional small scale boundaries. Scattered to likely pops are still a good bet for this afternoon into this evening. Severe weather-wise: Similar to the last few days, well organized severe storms are not likely with a lack of larger scale support. But increasing DCAPE values could support strong wind gusts with any convection this afternoon into this evening, along with heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 90s away from the beaches with a few upper 90s far inland, mainly across interior Southeast Georgia. Heat indices will peak in the 105-108 range with 100-105 at the beaches. A few instances of heat indices 108-109 can not be ruled out, but limited coverage and durations do not support the issuance of a Heat Advisory. Breezy conditions appear likely at the beaches this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland and the pressure gradient between high pressure offshore and a sharpening lee-side trough across the western Carolinas tightens. Tonight: Scattered to numerous showers/tstms across the interior will gradually weaken as the activity pushes east to the coast. How quickly convection wanes will be dependent on how much overturning occurs during the late afternoon hours. Pops were capped at 40-60% (highest inland) for now, but these will likely have to be adjusted depending how convection and its influence on instability evolves during the afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the lower-mid 70s across the interior to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad troughing will prevail over the eastern half of the United States on Thursday and Friday, with high pressure beginning to build into the region from the east on Saturday. At the surface a cold front will approach the region Thursday into Friday, likely stalling in the vicinity of the Carolinas through Saturday. With PWATs over 2 inches as well as plentiful instability, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, with widespread coverage forecast on Friday. With plenty of moisture and instability, a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm is certainly possible, as well as the threat for heavy rainfall. With increasing precipitation and cloud cover temperatures will likely be a degree or two less than earlier this week, although still hot and humid. Heat Index values are forecast to reach 104-107F each afternoon. However, afternoon convection could inhibit temperatures from reaching their full potential. Overnight lows are forecast to dip into the low 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coastal counties. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure aloft and at the surface will build into the forecast area from the east into early next week. PWATs are forecast to remain elevated along with instability. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, generally due to boundary interactions and the afternoon sea breeze. Guidance continues to be rather bullish with PoPs through the period, so the current forecast maintains chance to likely PoPs, still above climatology. With above normal precipitation and increased cloud cover through the period, temperatures are forecast to return to near normal or even slightly below normal through the period. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 17/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: The main forecast challenge for today is the timing/coverage of tstms. Best chances for impacts this afternoon/evening will be at KCHS and KSAV as the sea breeze moves inland. TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions in TSRA were maintained at both terminals, but times were adjusted slightly, 20-23z at KCHS and 21-00z at KSAV. Data now suggest tstms may get closer to KJZI, but possibly hold just to the west, so VCTS was introduced 20-02z for now. Convection should gradually concentrate west of the terminals by early evening, but there are signals decaying showers/tstms could make a run for the coast by late evening. VCSH with some mid-level cigs were maintained to try and account for this. Further adjustments will be needed throughout the day as trends become more apparent. Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered afternoon showers/tstorms could produce brief flight restrictions at all terminals this week. && .MARINE... Today: A modest nocturnal surge over the waters will weaken a bit as sunrise approaches. Southerly winds will diminish to 10-15 kt this morning. Winds will begin to pick up again this afternoon as a modest sea breeze develops along the beaches and the pressure gradient begins to tighten between high pressure offshore and a sharpening lee-side trough over the western Carolinas. Speeds will increase to 15-20 kt this afternoon as a result. Frequent gusts to 25 kt appear likely over the Charleston Habor as well as the nearshore waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach by mid-afternoon so Small Craft Advisories have been posted for these waters. Seas will average 3-4 ft with a few sets as high as 5 ft. Tonight: The gradient will remain fairly static supporting 15-20 kt all waters again tonight. Gusts to 25 kt are the most likely over the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore legs, but could extend south to include all remaining waters. It is not exactly clear how frequent gusts to 25 kt will be south of Edisto Beach, so a second period Small Craft Advisory was not posted. The need for an advisory will be reevaluated later today. Seas will build 3-5 ft. Thursday through Sunday: High pressure will prevail across the marine zones while a cold front approaches the inland zones. Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Generally southerly winds 10-15 knots are forecast, with slightly stronger wind speeds are possible along the direct coastline in association with the afternoon sea breeze. Seas should average 3 to 4 ft. Rip Currents: Gusty onshore winds along with 2 ft swell every 8-9 seconds will support a moderate risk for rip currents today and Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 17: KCHS: 78/2023 KCXM: 82/2021 KSAV: 80/1883 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ350. && $$