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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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836 FXUS62 KCHS 150020 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 820 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure to the east and a weak inland trough will extend across the region through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Heat index values are quickly falling across the area and the Heat Advisory has been expired. Only a few isolated storms left across the region at sunset as the sea breeze has progressed inland and will push west of the coastal plain within the next hour or so. Debris clouds will be fairly limited this evening, but elevated low level moisture and a weak but persistent BL gradient will keep radiation weak, with warm and humid conditions through the night. In general, low temps will range from the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s across coastal counties. Along the beaches, low temps should range in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday and Tuesday: The region will remain on the western periphery of a deep layer Atlantic ridge. Generally south-southwest low level flow with continued hot and humid conditions. Have kept chance PoPs for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Main initiator of scattered convection will be the seabreeze and other low level boundaries/outflow boundaries. PWs around 2 inches, along light steering flow will again bring the potential for locally heavy downpours with any stronger showers/thunderstorms. Guidance continues to indicate Heat Advisory conditions will be likely on Monday and less likely on Tuesday. Highest heat indices along and east of I-95. Will not issue any Heat Advisories at this point for Monday, given we already have one in place for today/Sunday. Wednesday: The deep layer Atlantic Ridge starts to retreat a bit eastward as a broad upper level trough forms well northwest of the region, over the Great Lakes and OH River Valley regions. Given a little more cyclonic upper level flow, and continued deep/tropical moisture with PWs 2+ inches, expect higher coverage of convection than previous days. However, given it is still day 4, have capped PoPs at high end chance. Given higher convective coverage, feel max Heat Indices will remain just below Advisory, although cannot rule out a few spots reaching the 108 threshold. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak upper level trough gradually weakens to the northwest of the area, while a deep layer Atlantic ridge gradually builds back westward. Model guidance continues to be rather bullish with PoPs in the likely or even higher categories for much of this period. Given the typical uncertainty this far out, have continued to undercut blended model PoPs a tad, keeping them in the high chance to low end likely range. Temperatures near to possibly slightly below normal, especially the max temperatures, due to higher than climo PoPs/cloud cover potential. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overnight will feature mainly dry conditions across the area. Elevated low level moisture will again limit the radiation cooling potential, and another warm/muggy night is on tap. Some shallow/patchy/light fog is again possible late tonight, but the probability of impacts at any of the terminals is too low to justify inclusion in the TAF at this point. Monday will bring another summerlike day, with light winds in the morning becoming S in the afternoon, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms along and ahead of the sea breeze front. The mainly threat for any flight restrictions will come if showers/storms move over the terminals Monday afternoon, but confidence in coverage and timing is too low to include any mentions in the TAFs at this point. Extended Aviation Outlook: Through mid week: Brief flight restrictions will be possible with scattered afternoon showers/tstorms at all terminals, mainly late morning through early afternoon. Chances for showers/thunderstorms may begin to increase a bit by mid week, increasing the risk for flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Tonight: A fairly weak pressure gradient will prevail along the western periphery of high pressure across the Atlantic and a trough well inland. South to southeast winds upwards to 10-15 kt are possible this evening, before winds tip back to southwest overnight. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Monday through Tuesday night: No highlights are expected as a deep layer Atlantic ridge remains centered east of the waters. Expect south- southwest winds of 15 knots or less and seas of 2 to 4 feet, highest beyond 10 or 20 nm offshore. Scattered mainly late night through morning showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday and Thursday: Models show the low level pressure gradient to increase as an upper level trough develops well northwest of the waters over the OH River Valley and Great Lakes. South-southwest winds of 10-20 knots, with some gusts of 20-24 knots possible. Seas 3 to 5 feet, highest well offshore. Still feel conditions will remain below SCA levels. Scattered to numerous mainly late night through morning showers and thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 15: KCHS: 81/1981 KCXM: 82/2023 KSAV: 80/1981 July 16: KCHS: 78/2023 KCXM: 82/2021 KSAV: 82/1883 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEB/DPB/RFM SHORT TERM...RFM LONG TERM...RFM AVIATION...CEB/RFM MARINE...DPB/RFM