879
FXUS62 KCHS 160415
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1215 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist offshore, while a weak trough
resides inland through mid week. A cold front will approach the
region late week and likely stall nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Very few changes were needed for the midnight update. Lows form
the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and
Downtown Charleston look on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridging will weaken through midweek as a broad trough
initially north of the area amplifies into the Southeast. At the
surface, high pressure will persist over the Atlantic while a trough
resides inland. A cold front will slowly approach the region on
Thursday. Environment will be characterized by PWats of over 2
inches and moderate to strong instability. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, with
coverage peaking in the afternoon and evening. While the threat for
widespread organized severe weather is low, a few stronger to severe
storms are possible especially where boundary interactions occur.
There will also be a threat for locally heavy rainfall.

The other concern remains the heat. High temperatures in the low to
mid 90s combine with elevated to dewpoints to produce heat indices
mainly in the 105-109F range. Looks more marginal at this time, but
these values could prompt a Heat Advisory for some locations -
mainly along the coast and the Charleston Tri-County. The caveat
would be if expected convection develops, this activity would
disrupt temperature trends. Lows will average in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will likely stall over or near the area late week,
before retreating back northward and dissipating over the weekend.
Aloft, the region looks to be positioned between an offshore ridge
and troughing to the north and west. Still think NBM PoPs are a bit
aggressive this far out, so opted to again cap rain chances below
75%. Further adjustments will be needed. Temperatures are expected
to trend back closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
16/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR for much of the period through 17/06z. Risk
for showers/tstms will increase late afternoon into this evening
hours for KSAV as a cluster of convection moves in from the west
and southwest. A TEMPO group for MVFR conditions was maintained,
but delayed slightly to 23-01z. The main convection axis looks
to remain west of KCHS and especially KJZI, so mention of TSRA
will be included for the 06z TAF cycle.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon
showers/tstorms could produce brief flight restrictions at all
terminals this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Another nocturnal surge is possible tonight with
southwest winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas generally 3-4
ft.

Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will persist offshore, while
a trough resides inland. A cold front will approach the region late
week. This pattern will favor southerly flow through the period.
Conditions largely stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria, but
gusts could come close, especially on Wednesday across the
Charleston county nearshore waters. Seas will average 3-4 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 15:
KCHS: 81/1981
KCXM: 82/2023
KSAV: 80/1981

July 16:
KCHS: 78/2023
KCXM: 82/2021
KSAV: 82/1883

July 17:
KCHS: 78/2023
KCXM: 82/2021
KSAV: 80/1883

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$