831
FXUS62 KCHS 152359
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
759 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist offshore, while a weak trough
resides inland through mid week. A cold front will approach the
region late week and likely stall nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast area appears largely worked over this evening. A
patch of lingering stratiform rainfall should dissipate before
late this evening. The rest of the night should remain dry.
Otherwise, the CWA will remain under extensive debris cloud
cover through much of the night. The combination cloud cover and
light SW winds should keep temperatures mild tonight. Lows
will range from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the
beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridging will weaken through midweek as a broad trough
initially north of the area amplifies into the Southeast. At the
surface, high pressure will persist over the Atlantic while a trough
resides inland. A cold front will slowly approach the region on
Thursday. Environment will be characterized by PWats of over 2
inches and moderate to strong instability. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, with
coverage peaking in the afternoon and evening. While the threat for
widespread organized severe weather is low, a few stronger to severe
storms are possible especially where boundary interactions occur.
There will also be a threat for locally heavy rainfall.

The other concern remains the heat. High temperatures in the low to
mid 90s combine with elevated to dewpoints to produce heat indices
mainly in the 105-109F range. Looks more marginal at this time, but
these values could prompt a Heat Advisory for some locations -
mainly along the coast and the Charleston Tri-County. The caveat
would be if expected convection develops, this activity would
disrupt temperature trends. Lows will average in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will likely stall over or near the area late week,
before retreating back northward and dissipating over the weekend.
Aloft, the region looks to be positioned between an offshore ridge
and troughing to the north and west. Still think NBM PoPs are a bit
aggressive this far out, so opted to again cap rain chances below
75%. Further adjustments will be needed. Temperatures are expected
to trend back closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Prior to the 0Z TAFs: KCLX indicated a patch of stratiform rain
inland of the terminals. The rainfall should not impact the
terminals and will likely dissipate by late evening. The rest of
the night should remain VFR with light SW winds. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a sea breeze Tuesday
afternoon. At this time, KSAV appears to have the greatest risk
between 20-24Z for a TSRA, highlighted with a TEMPO.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon
showers/tstorms could produce brief flight restrictions at all
terminals this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of this afternoon: No highlights expected. Winds generally
southwest 10 to 15 knots, with winds of 15 to 20 knots possible
behind the seabreeze near the coast. Seas 3-4 ft.

Tonight: Another nocturnal surge is possible tonight with
southwest winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas generally 3-4
ft.

Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will persist offshore, while
a trough resides inland. A cold front will approach the region late
week. This pattern will favor southerly flow through the period.
Conditions largely stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria, but
gusts could come close, especially on Wednesday across the
Charleston county nearshore waters. Seas will average 3-4 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 15:
KCHS: 81/1981
KCXM: 82/2023
KSAV: 80/1981

July 16:
KCHS: 78/2023
KCXM: 82/2021
KSAV: 82/1883

July 17:
KCHS: 78/2023
KCXM: 82/2021
KSAV: 80/1883

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...ETM/RFM