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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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262 FXUS61 KCAR 162053 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 453 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Several weak troughs of low pressure will cross the area through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will cross the region Friday into Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak sfc boundary has developed this afternoon with convective showers along and east of it. Majority of them have moved into New Brunswick as of 19z but still looking at some acrs nrn Aroostook. Expect these will move into NB in the next few hrs or dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening. For tonight complex of thunderstorms exiting the eastern end of Lk Ontario and heading into the Adirondacks is about 3-5 hrs ahead of where things were last night, meaning the complex of storms will be heading into wrn areas of our CWA later this evening. Hires guidance, along with HREF is showing this area moving into wrn Piscataquis County btwn 03-04z and heading east and out of the state shortly after daybreak. Elevated instability likely to be present once again and with pw values above the 90th percentile again expect another round of heavy rain tonight and have mentioned isolated storms with locally heavy rainfall for the overnight hours. Low temperatures and high dewpoints will be similar to last night as well, resulting in another night of mugginess. For tomorrow afternoon expect another round of diurnally driven convection to develop. Atmosphere should have enuf time to reload in the wake of complex moving through earlier. CAPES will range between 500-1000 joules with marginal mid-level lapse rates and shear increasing in the afternoon to between 35-40kts. Have included gusty winds along with another round of locally heavy rainfall in the forecast after 19z. Have issued another Heat Advisory for the Bangor Region as heat index values forecast to be near/above 95 in the early afternoon as dewpoints pool ahead of the convection. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front will move from the Saint Lawrence Valley Wednesday evening to central/Downeast portions of the forecast area later Wednesday night. Aloft, an upper level disturbance also crosses the region early Wednesday night. Expect partly cloudy skies along with scattered showers/thunderstorms across the forecast area Wednesday night. Gusty winds and heavy rain are possible with any evening thunderstorms. The initial cold front should exit early Thursday. However, a secondary cold front/trof is possible during the afternoon. Expect partly sunny skies along with a chance of showers Thursday, along with the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. High pressure then builds across the region Thursday night into Friday. Could still have the slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm Thursday evening. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds Thursday night, with mostly sunny skies Friday. Expect near normal level temperatures Thursday/Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect mostly clear skies Friday night with high pressure. A cold front could approach later Saturday, crossing the region Saturday night into early Sunday. Could have a chance of showers/thunderstorms with the cold front across mostly northern areas Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies. Could have a chance of showers/thunderstorms with the cold front, mostly across northern and central areas, Saturday night. The cold front should exit early Sunday, with high pressure then building. Expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies Sunday with only the slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm. Uncertainty then exists regarding the timing of a possible cold front later Monday into Tuesday. Dependent on the timing of the cold front could have a chance of showers/thunderstorms later Monday into Tuesday. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Saturday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR with showers and vcts over Aroostook terminals this afternoon. Cannot rule out a brief MVFR restriction in any locally heavy rainfall but little confidence on location. Expect another area of showers, and perhaps a storm to roll through after 04z tonight. SHORT TERM: Wednesday night...Variable conditions with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Thursday...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms, Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots. Thursday night through Friday night...Slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm early Thursday night. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/southwest Friday. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night. Saturday through Saturday night...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night. Sunday...Generally VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon shower/thunderstorm. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds remain below small craft levels but seas over the outer waters may approach 5ft late this evening, more likely on the order of 3-5 feet. Visibilities will continue to be reduced below one mile at times in fog. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Wednesday night through Friday. A chance of showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Thursday night. Patchy fog Wednesday night into Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MEZ015. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Buster Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Buster/Norcross Marine...Buster/Norcross