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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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335 FXUS61 KCAR 201626 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1226 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front from Quebec will approach late today and cross the area tonight into Sunday. High pressure will build over the area Monday. A frontal system will stall over the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Weak low pressure will track south of the region on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230 PM Update: No sig chgs made this update with fcst hrly temps/dwpts updated to mid to late aftn with no chgs attm to fcst high temps. Prev Disc: High pressure south of the area today will bring a mostly sunny and warm day with a southwesterly breeze. A cold front pushing south from a cool upper low over Quebec will approach this afternoon and begin to push into northwestern parts of the region late in the afternoon. Some weak instability ahead of the front with CAPEs up to around 100 J/KG extending up to around 15-20 K ft, combined with surface convergence ahead of the front, may bring spotty thunderstorms to far northwestern parts of the area late this afternoon into early this evening. Moisture thins out later this evening as the front pushes through. Spotty showers may push south with the front across the northern half of the area this evening but instability will probably be too weak to support thunderstorms. The cold front will clear the northern part of the area by dawn on Sunday as it approaches the southern half of our region. This will allow the sky to clear across the north behind the front late tonight as cooler and drier air pushes in. The front will be carrying a band of clouds and isolated showers into central and southern parts of our area early Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front will progress through the area Sunday, bringing cooler and less humid air. There is the risk of a brief shower in the southern half of the forecast area, and maybe even a couple of thunderstorms along the coast if the frontal boundary has not exited the area by the time max heating occurs. A cool upper trough will help with destabilization. If a thunderstorm can form near the coast, shear looks more than adequate for a stronger storm or two. Further inland, a deep mixed layer and offshore flow will help propel high temps into the lower 70s north and upper 70s to lower 80s for interior Downeast and the Bangor area. The deep mixed layer will also produce gusty northwest winds reaching 20 to 25 mph at times. Dew points will be much lower than we have seen in recent weeks. Went with the lower end of guidance with readings in the 40s behind the front Sunday afternoon. For Sunday night, the air mass is so cool that bias-corrected guidance looks much too high. Expect lows in the 40s for the northern half of the area and low to mid 50s for Bangor and coast. Light winds and clear skies will ensure a shallow inversion develops. The inversion will burn off quickly Monday morning, but the air mass remains relatively cool. Under generally sunny skies, highs will nominally increase to the mid 70s north and lower 80s for Bangor and Downeast. Once again, an offshore flow will bring the warmer temps right to the coast. Clouds will tend to increase Monday night as a cold front sags southward from Canada in the northern stream and a warm front pushes northward from the Mid-Atlantic region. As a result, lows increase to the mid to upper 50s across the area. There are indications of low clouds/fog moving towards the Hancock County coast late night, and some elevated instability is noted advancing northward from southern Maine and the Gulf of Maine late Monday night. Confidence is not high enough to include mention of thunder at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term forecast for next week was generally predicated on the idea that a frontal boundary will be somewhat stationary over the area with mostly cloudy skies, showers, high humidity and a lower diurnal temperature range. This follows NBM guidance. The synoptic pattern involves a northern stream shortwave digging into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday while deep southern stream moisture advects northeastward from a trough in the lower Mississippi Valley towards New England. Precipitable water values will surge towards 1.5 to 2 inches over the area by mid week. At some point later in the week, an organized low with heavier precip may form. Timing and location remains problematic with solutions varying from the 20/00Z GFS on Wednesday night to the 20/00Z ECMWF pointing towards Friday. The difference lies in whether the Great Lakes trough evolves into a cut-off upper low west of the area Thursday...as advertised by ECMWF. Did not include mention of thunderstorms in the long term due to cloud cover and lack of consensus in guidance. That said, the general pattern will be conducive with a little extra surface heating and/or upper level shortwaves that are not well resolved at this point. Using a consensus of guidance, keep highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area next week. Wednesday stands the greatest chance of being a bit lower due to thicker cloud cover and a strong frontal inversion. The exit of the upper trough by next weekend appears likely to be followed by a strong upper ridge with another round of well above normal temperatures and humidity. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today and tonight. Winds light SW today then very light W becoming NW tonight. SHORT TERM: Sunday...VFR with a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm along the coast from BHB towards Eastport. NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Sunday night and Monday...VFR with light winds. Monday night...Chance of IFR cigs towards BHB and BGR late night. Otherwise VFR with light winds. Tuesday...Chance of IFR cigs towards BHB and BGR in the morning. Otherwise VFR with light winds. Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms north of BGR. Light south winds. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing risk of IFR cigs moving north from the coast across the area. Slight risk of embedded thunderstorms with a warm front. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will be below SCA today and tonight. A bit of light mist may cover the waters through tonight ahead of the cold front. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain under advisory criteria through the period. Strong stability led to reductions in guidance winds in the forecast through next week. Increasing humidity next week increases the risk of fog beginning later Monday night through later next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...VJN/MCW Marine...VJN/MCW