119
FXUS61 KCAR 182027
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
427 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit the area tonight. High pressure will
build in on Friday. Another cold front will approach Saturday
then cross the region Saturday night into Sunday. High
pressure will build across the region Monday into Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main question for this evening is whether the vort max
currently crossing southern Quebec will kick off another round
of thunderstorms as it crosses northern Maine. Cooling and
drying air aloft increased instability this afternoon, and a few
thunderstorms formed over the North Woods and eastern Aroostook
County. CAPE values are just north of 500 kg/J, but there is a
fair bit of bulk shear available and these thunderstorms did
have a an elevated core. However, instability was not quite
enough to overcome shear, and the thunderstorms dissipated
before the strongest dbz got much higher than 15k feet. CAMs
have not really picked upon these afternoon storms, so model
guidance is fairly lacking. Think a few thunderstorms will make
it across the border, but then dissipate early this evening.

After this trough passes this evening, the forecast remains
quiet for later tonight and Friday. The cooler air mass will
bring a noticeable decrease in temps, and more importantly
dewpoints, so overnight lows are expected to be below 60F for
the first time in a while. Highs on Friday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s, and with the lower dewpoints, this will make for
a pleasant start to the weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect mostly clear skies Friday night with high pressure. A cold
front will approach northern Maine later Saturday. Across northern
areas, after a mostly sunny morning expect a partly sunny afternoon
along with the chance of showers/thunderstorms. Expect mostly sunny
skies Downeast Saturday. The cold front will cross the region
Saturday night through early Sunday. Expect a weakening area of
showers/thunderstorms to move south across the forecast area with
the cold front Saturday night through early Sunday. High
pressure will build toward the region Sunday. Expect mostly
sunny skies Sunday. Expect near normal, to slightly above
normal, level temperatures Saturday. Near normal, to slightly
below normal, level temperatures are expected Sunday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will bring mostly clear skies Sunday night, with
mostly/partly sunny skies Monday. Uncertainty increases Tuesday
into Thursday regarding the timing and location of a potential
slow moving or stalling frontal boundary in the vicinity of the
forecast area. Generally expect partly cloudy skies Tuesday into
Thursday, along with a daily chance of showers/slight chance of
thunderstorms. However, the coverage of showers/thunderstorms
is also uncertain. Expect near normal level temperatures Monday
through Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Showers and thunderstorms this evening are expected
to end by 00z as daytime heating significantly drops off. VFR
conditions expected overnight through tomorrow, including
Downeast, where northwest flow should keep the marine layer
offshore. W to NW winds 10 to 15kt, variable and gusty near any
showers or thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM:

Friday night...VFR. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday through Saturday night...Variable conditions with any
showers/thunderstorms, mostly north. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/west
winds around 10 knots Saturday. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming west/northwest Saturday night.

Sunday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday night through Monday night...Variable conditions with any
patchy fog Sunday night. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

Tuesday...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms.
Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria in the near term. Marine fog is expected
to move offshore and dissipate overnight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday
night through Sunday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Friday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...LF/Norcross
Marine...LF/Norcross