203
FXUS61 KCAR 191049
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
649 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area today. A cold front will
approach on Saturday and cross the area Saturday night. High
pressure will return on Sunday and remain across the area Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
649 AM Update: Clear skies continue this morning as seen on
current satellite imagery, with any patchy fog from the
overnight hours quickly clearing out as the sun continues to
rise. Skies should remain clear through the morning prior to the
development of a fair weather cu field this afternoon. The
previous forecast remains on track with no major adjustments
needed this update.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure will continue to provide subsidence over the area
today through tonight. Behind the recent FROPA, a continental
air mass has been ushered in, leading to drier air through the
profile. Clear skies will continue through most of the day
today, though a few fair weather cumulus may develop across the
forecast area this afternoon. A light breeze may pick up this
afternoon as well. Clear skies return tonight with light winds.
High temperatures today will lift into the upper 70s to lower
80s while dewpoints stay in the 50s. Tonight, low temperatures
will dip into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will slide south of the region on Saturday allowing a
light southwesterly return flow to set up across the area. The sky
will be mostly sunny through the morning and midday. A cold front
will approach during the afternoon and reach northwestern areas at
the end of the day. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms may push
into far northwestern areas late Saturday or early Saturday evening.
Forecast model sounding are only showing CAPEs of around 100-150
J/KG and an unstable layer up to around 15K ft. This is not very
favorable for significant storms. However, convergence along the
front may be enough to spawn a few isolated storms.

The cold front will push south through the area Saturday night. As
it pushes south, moisture along the leading edge of the front will
thin out and dissipate. Showers, more likely over the north, will
diminish along the leading edge of the front as it pushes south with
only a slight chance for some showers Downeast where the front will
arrive Sunday morning.

Significantly cooler and drier air will follow the front on Sunday
with highs across the north only in the low to mid 70s while highs
reach 80 Downeast. The sky will turn out mostly sunny on Sunday
except for some fair weather cumulus clouds, mostly over the
north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure settling over the area will bring a clear and very
cool night Sunday night with lows near 50 north and in the mid 50s
Downeast. The cool and calm air may allow for some river and valley
fog to form late at night. High pressure will remain over the area
Monday bringing another mostly sunny day with low humidity.

High pressure will be over the area Tuesday bringing another mostly
sunny day with highs near normal and a slight increase in humidity
with tranquil air.

As we approach mid-week, our focus turns to the northern edge of the
subtropical ridge which may begin to push north and usher in an
increase in humidity and clouds. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the
Bermuda ridge re-strengthening and pushing some moisture north, aided
by a trough moving into the Upper-Midwest. The GFS is most
aggressive in bringing clouds and a chance of rain north later
Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF, however, has surface high
pressure remaining anchored to our north and suppressing moisture to
our south. Moisture wraps around the back side of the subtropical
high and lifts north ahead of the Midwestern trough. However, the
ECMWF keep this moisture just to our south bringing some clouds to
southern areas, allowing the north to stay mostly clear, and keeping
rain to our south. Given the uncertainty, will have to include low
chance for showers Wednesday into Thursday. The greatest chance for
any rain will likely be over southern areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue across all terminals today
through tonight. Winds will become NW to W at 5 to 10 kts by
the afternoon. Winds will shift SW and become light tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR. Light SW wind.

Saturday night...VFR. Light W wind.

Sunday...VFR. Light NW wind.

Sunday night...VFR except in any localized valley fog late. Light W
wind becoming calm.

Monday...VFR. Light W wind.

Monday night...VFR. Calm air.

Tuesday...VFR. Light W wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas should remain below small craft
advisory criteria today through tonight. Seas may briefly sit at
around 4 to 5 ft early this morning on the coastal waters before
subsiding through the rest of the day. Any lingering patches of
dense fog over the waters will continue to dissipate into the
morning hours.

SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas are expected to be below SCA through the middle of
next week. Slightly lower humidity will likely result in
improved visibilities through early next week. Some increase in
humidity may return in the middle of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
So far this summer has been the warmest on record in Caribou
with an average temperature (June 1 - July 17) of 67.5F. In
Bangor, it ranks as the 2nd warmest summer on record with an
average temperature of 68.4F, behind only 1930 when the
average temperature was 70.7F through July 17th.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...AStrauser/Bloomer
Marine...AStrauser/Bloomer
Climate...CB