832
FXUS61 KCAR 071443
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1043 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushing into the area will stall over the region
today, then continue south tonight into Tuesday as high
pressure builds across the north. High pressure will remain over
the area Wednesday followed by a trough of low pressure
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 AM Update: A heat advisory is now in effect for the Bangor
region with heat index values reaching into the mid to upper
90s. Hot and humid conditions continue for the Downeast region
today, with the only cloud cover being some upper level cirrus
crossing the area now as seen on current satellite imagery.
Rainfall continues across the north, with a sharp gradient
between the two regimes, as also noted on satellite and KCBW
radar. Sky forecast was adjusted to better account for this
dichotomy, otherwise the previous forecast remains largely on
track.

Previous Discussion:
Nearly stationary frontal boundary across far northern Maine
early this morning stretches from just North of Houlton to
North of Greenville. The boundary will remain nearly stationary
across the region this morning and then sink slowly this
afternoon through tonight.

There will be a large temperature contrast today. To the north
of the boundary, high temperatures will only be in the mid to
upper 60s. However, south of the boundary, afternoon highs will
once again soar into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees across the
Central Maine Highlands, interior Downeast, and the Greater
Bangor region. Heat indices will once again climb into the low
to mid 90s this afternoon, but should remain just shy of advisory
criteria.

Expect mainly cloudy skies across northern areas and partly
sunny skies for the Bangor region and Downeast areas. Concern
this afternoon is for the potential for a few gusty thunderstorms
developing once again, as the frontal boundary will serve as
the focus for any convective development. Appears as if the best
chance for any localized severe storms this afternoon will be
from just to the south of Houlton, to Greenville, to
Millinocket, and to the North of the Bangor region, through the
Upper Penobscot Valley and interior Downeast. The primary threat
again will be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, the boundary will continue to sag south of the Bangor
region, and then to the coast by Tuesday Morning. Expect mainly
cloudy skies with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
for central and Downeast area, but decreasing chances for
precipitation are expected across far northern areas as the
frontal boundary continues to move south. Areas of fog are
expected across Downeast areas and the coast tonight, with
abundant low level moisture in place. Will need to watch out for
the potential of the fog to become locally dense along the
coast late tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
low to mid 50s across the far north, to the mid to upper 60s
for the Bangor region.

Tuesday, a large area of high pressure will slowly begin to
build south toward the region. There may still be some lingering
showers or isolated thunderstorms for central and Downeast
areas early in the day, but the trend will be for improving
conditions. Expect the most sunshine across far northern areas,
and more clouds to the south toward the Bangor region.
Afternoon highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s for most
areas, away from the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will have moved offshore Tuesday evening with showers on
the wane over Downeast late. Clear skies will be pressing south
overnight though may begin to see high thin cirrus pressing into nrn
zones by morning. Portions of the North Woods may be able to dip
into the 40s with 50s elsewhere under light northerly flow.

An isolated shower or two may develop across the Central Highlands
in the afternoon with orographic lift in combination with weak
inverted trof setting up. Cannot rule out a brief storm acrs the far
west but very little in the way of organized convection expected
during the day Wednesday.

Another wave moves along quasi-stalled boundary well offshore
Wednesday night. Wave looks to be far enough offshore to keep
showers out of Downeast though inverted trof remains over wrn zones
but have removed thunder from the area with minimal instability
expected overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to develop in western areas Thursday morning into
the afternoon with instability marginal but have included slight chc
for thunder along the Quebec border. Sfc ridge will be holding fast
over sern areas with very little in the way of pcpn expected in this
area.

By Thursday night upr flow over the northeast begins to diverge with
deterministic GFS keeping H5 trof to our west and eventually closing
it off once it dives into Nova Scotia. CMC/EC close H5 low back to
our west over Quebec and dribble it acrs the CWA thru the weekend.
All this to say that the end of the week and the early part of the
weekend looks to be showery, cloudy and cool once again.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR Downeast terminals, diminishing to MVFR/IFR later
this evening. IFR/LIFR after 05z thru end of TAF valid time.

HUL will be MVFR/IFR this morning in showers and low cigs.
Northern Aroostook terminals diminish to MVFR/IFR late this
morning into early this afternoon, and LIFR after 04z.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. Light N wind.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...VFR. Light E becoming SSE Wed night.

Thursday-Friday...Mainly VFR, though may see brief MVFR in showers
and possible storms for northern Aroostook terminals. Light SE
wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels through
Tuesday. A few gusts to around 25 kt are possible across the
outer most waters this afternoon and into this evening.
Visibility will be reduced to 1 NM or less at times tonight
through Tuesday morning in fog and scattered showers.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels through the
end of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ015.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...AStrauser/TWD/Buster
Marine...AStrauser/TWD/Buster