262
FXUS61 KCAR 162053
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
453 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several weak troughs of low pressure will cross the area through
Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. High pressure will cross the region Friday into
Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night
into Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak sfc boundary has developed this afternoon with convective
showers along and east of it. Majority of them have moved into New
Brunswick as of 19z but still looking at some acrs nrn Aroostook.
Expect these will move into NB in the next few hrs or dissipate with
the loss of daytime heating this evening.

For tonight complex of thunderstorms exiting the eastern end of Lk
Ontario and heading into the Adirondacks is about 3-5 hrs ahead of
where things were last night, meaning the complex of storms
will be heading into wrn areas of our CWA later this evening.
Hires guidance, along with HREF is showing this area moving into
wrn Piscataquis County btwn 03-04z and heading east and out of
the state shortly after daybreak. Elevated instability likely to
be present once again and with pw values above the 90th
percentile again expect another round of heavy rain tonight and
have mentioned isolated storms with locally heavy rainfall for
the overnight hours. Low temperatures and high dewpoints will be
similar to last night as well, resulting in another night of
mugginess.

For tomorrow afternoon expect another round of diurnally driven
convection to develop. Atmosphere should have enuf time to
reload in the wake of complex moving through earlier. CAPES will
range between 500-1000 joules with marginal mid-level lapse
rates and shear increasing in the afternoon to between 35-40kts.
Have included gusty winds along with another round of locally
heavy rainfall in the forecast after 19z. Have issued another
Heat Advisory for the Bangor Region as heat index values
forecast to be near/above 95 in the early afternoon as dewpoints
pool ahead of the convection.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move from the Saint Lawrence Valley Wednesday
evening to central/Downeast portions of the forecast area later
Wednesday night. Aloft, an upper level disturbance also crosses the
region early Wednesday night. Expect partly cloudy skies along with
scattered showers/thunderstorms across the forecast area Wednesday
night. Gusty winds and heavy rain are possible with any evening
thunderstorms. The initial cold front should exit early
Thursday. However, a secondary cold front/trof is possible
during the afternoon. Expect partly sunny skies along with a
chance of showers Thursday, along with the chance of an
afternoon thunderstorm. High pressure then builds across the
region Thursday night into Friday. Could still have the slight
chance of a shower or thunderstorm Thursday evening. Otherwise,
expect decreasing clouds Thursday night, with mostly sunny skies
Friday. Expect near normal level temperatures Thursday/Friday.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect mostly clear skies Friday night with high pressure. A cold
front could approach later Saturday, crossing the region Saturday
night into early Sunday. Could have a chance of
showers/thunderstorms with the cold front across mostly northern
areas Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly clear/partly
cloudy skies. Could have a chance of showers/thunderstorms with
the cold front, mostly across northern and central areas,
Saturday night. The cold front should exit early Sunday, with
high pressure then building. Expect mostly clear/partly cloudy
skies Sunday with only the slight chance of a
shower/thunderstorm. Uncertainty then exists regarding the
timing of a possible cold front later Monday into Tuesday.
Dependent on the timing of the cold front could have a chance of
showers/thunderstorms later Monday into Tuesday. Slightly above
normal level temperatures are expected Saturday. Near normal
level temperatures are expected Sunday through Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR with showers and vcts over Aroostook terminals
this afternoon. Cannot rule out a brief MVFR restriction in any
locally heavy rainfall but little confidence on location. Expect
another area of showers, and perhaps a storm to roll through
after 04z tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night...Variable conditions with a chance of
showers/thunderstorms. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms,
Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night through Friday night...Slight chance of a
shower/thunderstorm early Thursday night. Otherwise, VFR.
West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night.
West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/southwest
Friday. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night.

Saturday through Saturday night...Variable conditions with any
showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
Saturday. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night.

Sunday...Generally VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon
shower/thunderstorm. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds remain below small craft levels but seas over
the outer waters may approach 5ft late this evening, more likely
on the order of 3-5 feet. Visibilities will continue to be
reduced below one mile at times in fog.

SHORT TERM:  Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Wednesday
night through Friday. A chance of showers/thunderstorms
Wednesday night into early Thursday night. Patchy fog Wednesday
night into Thursday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MEZ015.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Buster/Norcross
Marine...Buster/Norcross