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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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005 FXUS61 KCAR 172013 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 413 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak weather disturbance will cross the area tonight followed by a cold front on Thursday. High pressure will build across the region Friday into Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build toward the region Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A few showers are popping up on radar this afternoon and these are expected to develop into thunderstorms as the evening progresses. Current analysis of stability indices still shows that the best region for storms to develop remains on an axis from Dover-Foxcroft to south of Houlton. DCAPEs are currently 800+ in this region, and are expected to increase to around 1000 later tonight as the axis of instability shifts further southeast. This indicates strong winds are still a possibility with these storms, however the biggest concern remains heavy precipitation with warm cloud layers between 11k and 13k feet, and PWATs >1.75 inches. Unlike the usual scenario where thunderstorms diminish after sunset, these may last until midnight or so, as the most unstable air remains elevated. After the thunderstorms dissipate, fog will form around the area, particularly further south where more precipitation is expected. During the day on Thursday, the cold front will finally move through. This will bring another period of showers and thunderstorms, although they will be weaker. Although there won`t be a significant decrease in temperatures, dewpoints will drop behind the front. Not only will this reduce the convective potential, it will also provide a break from the mugginess for a short period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will move offshore Thursday night, with high pressure building toward the region late. Could still have the slight chance of a shower Thursday evening. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds with building high pressure. High pressure builds across the region Friday through Friday night with mostly clear skies. A cold front will then begin to approach northern areas later Saturday. Expect a mostly sunny morning, then a partly sunny afternoon with a chance of showers/thunderstorms across northern areas Saturday. Expect mostly sunny skies Downeast Saturday. Expect near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures Friday/Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The cold front will cross the region Saturday night through early Sunday. Expect a weakening area of showers/thunderstorms to move south across the forecast area with the cold front Saturday night through early Sunday. Surface high pressure will build toward the region Sunday. Aloft, an upper level disturbance should cross the region which could help support the slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm. High pressure then builds across the region Sunday night into Tuesday. Expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies Sunday night into Tuesday. Uncertainty exists regarding the timing of a possible cold front Wednesday which could bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Sunday/Monday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday/Wednesday. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected to continue this evening, with a possible drop to MVFR in any showers or thunderstorms. Have removed the mention of VCTS from the northern TAFs, since highest convective potential is further south and thunderstorm coverage will be greater. After thunderstorms/showers pass, a drop to MVFR overnight is likely with any lingering moisture. This is expected to break in the morning as daytime heating provides enough instability to break up the cloud deck. SHORT TERM: Thursday night through Friday night...Slight chance of an evening shower Thursday night. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/southwest Friday. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night. Saturday through Saturday night...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/west winds around 10 knots Saturday. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night. Sunday...Slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunday night through Monday ...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria in the near term. Areas of marine fog will redevelop overnight and remain through the morning, before moving offshore tomorrow afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday. Patchy fog Thursday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ015>017. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...LF Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...LF/Norcross Marine...LF/Norcross