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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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608 FXUS61 KCAR 121553 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1153 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will exit into the maritimes today. A disturbance will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will cross the region Sunday. A cold front will begin to approach Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1151AM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this update. Previous discussion... Although the remains of Beryl have moved out, a rather juicy air mass remains in its wake and warm and muggy conditions will continue today. Low clouds and fog have filled in across the area overnight, with the exception of the Downeast coast, where a bit of wind aloft is mixing the surface layer enough to keep fog from forming. These winds are expected to drop off during the morning, however, priming the atmosphere for low clouds and fog to form a little later this morning. In spite of the juicy air mass, not much of a trigger remains today for showers and thunderstorms. A weak trough passing through midday may be enough for some scattered showers, mainly over elevated areas. Daytime heating further south will contribute to kick off an isolated thunderstorm or two, however current forecast soundings also indicate a bit of a warm nose in lower levels, so this may limit thunderstorm formation a bit. Can`t rule out a few strikes but these will be garden variety thunderstorms if they do form. Clearing skies will push daytime highs into the mid-80s in the Bangor region today, and combined with dewpoints in the mid-70s, conditions will be marginal for a heat advisory. Have decided to hold off on issuing anything this morning while we wait to see if those high dewpoints come to fruition. The next shift may need to make a different call. Overnight, not expecting much different from last night (Thursday), with low clouds and fog reforming as the surface cools and the atmosphere decouples. Thus, have areas of fog in for the forecast again tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Warm and muggy conditions continue through the weekend. Saturday is looking like the more unsettled of the two days thanks to an approaching upper trough, while upper level ridging Sunday should suppress convection. Saturday... Not only are we dealing with an approaching shortwave trough and vort max from the NW, but also an approaching vort max from the SW rounding the base of the trough. The timing of this latter feature means we could be starting the day with showers Downeast, and raised PoPs to around 40 percent in the morning to account for this. PoPs in the afternoon are 30 to 65 percent, highest Downeast. There is enough instability for storms anywhere. Can`t rule out a strong storm or two, but not expecting any widespread severe storms. With precipitable water values nearing 2 inches Downeast, heavy rain is a threat as well. Highs generally in the low to mid 80s and muggy. Saturday Night... Shower chances diminish through the night as daytime convection tapers off and the shortwave trough and vort max pass to our east. With moist soils and a muggy airmass, fog is a threat. Warmer than average with lows in the 60s. Sunday... Shortwave upper level ridging for Sunday. Although it will still be quite moist at low levels, aloft it will be drier with more subsidence thanks to the ridging, so not expecting much for afternoon showers and storms. Kept PoPs just below 15 percent. Very warm with mid to upper 80s and muggy yet again. Sunday Night... Quiet Sunday night and generally mostly clear, with again a potential fly in the ointment being patchy fog. Yet again, a warmer than average night with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The much warmer than average temperatures persist into Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday depending on the timing of a cold front. Monday and Tuesday will feature highs in the mid to upper 80s with perhaps a few spots reaching 90, with dewpoints remaining quite high with mid 60s to low 70s. The subsidence and weak ridging we had Sunday is gone for Monday to Wednesday, and expect scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. There will likely be a cold front at some point roughly Wednesday or Wednesday night, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on the timing of the front. There is also considerable uncertainty on the amount of cooling behind the front for Thursday and Friday. It does look likely that we will at last see some less muggy air and lower rain chances Thursday and Friday. However, it`s unclear if temperatures will return to near average or remain warmer than average Thursday/Friday. At the least, it should feel more comfortable Thursday/Friday than Monday to Wednesday thanks to the lower dewpoints. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Some mixing through the day should improve conditions to VFR as skies scatter out, particularly in the south. Slight chance of a shower at inland TAF sites this afternoon. Isolated TS will be in the area but unlikely at any TAF sites. Overnight, expect low clouds and fog to return with little change in atmospheric conditions from last night. SHORT TERM: Saturday... Variable conditions to start the day due to patchy fog and low clouds, but most places will be predominantly VFR by late morning and into the afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms could however bring temporary lower conditions and gusty winds. SW wind 5-10 kts. Saturday Night... Beginning VFR, with variable conditions later in the night due to patchy fog and low clouds. Light winds. Sunday... Variable conditions to start the day due to patchy fog and low clouds, but most places will be predominantly VFR by late morning and into the afternoon. Little or no afternoon showers/storms expected. W wind 5 kts. Sunday Night through Tuesday... Variable conditions late night and early morning hours with patchy fog. Generally VFR mid morning through early evening. Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms Monday/Tuesday. SW wind 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds have decreased across the waters, but seas remain above 5 feet and the SCA has been extended through midnight. Seas will subside early Saturday morning. Marine fog is expected to become more widespread today and visibilities below 1 nm are possible. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels. Winds will generally be from the W/SW/S. Patchy or areas of fog are likely over the waters through early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...LF/LaFlash Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...LF/LaFlash/Foisy Marine...LF/LaFlash/Foisy